Preliminary November Class 8 truck orders see another month of declines

Preliminary November Class 8 truck net orders again saw annual declines, according to data respectively issued this week by FTR and ACT Research.

FTR reported that preliminary October Class 8 truck net orders, at 24,300 units, saw an 18% gain, from September to October, while falling 22% annually, marking the tenth consecutive month of annual declines, with Class 8 orders coming in at 230,643 units over the last 12 months.

FTR reported that preliminary November Class 8 truck net orders, at 20,200 units, were down 17% sequentially and 44% annually, which it said is far below the 10-year average of 28,910, with total orders coming in at 214,797 units over the last 12 months.

The firm explained that the pullback persisted despite modest improvements in tariff and regulatory clarity, and it added that fleets continued to defer replacement and expansion plans amid weak freight demand, persistent excess capacity, elevated financing and equipment costs, tariff volatility, uneven economic conditions, evolving emissions requirements, and sustained margin pressure. It also noted that both vocational and on-highway segments posted sequential and annual declines, with vocational outperforming on-highway on an annual basis, reflecting continued, but cautious, demand heading into 2026.

What’s more, FTR said that concerns are rising for the 2026 order cycle, as evidenced by cumulative net orders from September through November falling 36% annually. But that comes with the caveats that the market has more clarity now than it did a couple of months ago in regards to tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and likely changes in the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx rule. Addressing tariffs, it said the tariff structure raises costs but in a measured, targeted manner, supporting reshoring while avoiding significant short-term disruption to Class 8 sourcing and production. And it said that the expected elimination of the extended warranty requirements in the NOx rule likely will reduce costs substantially—perhaps by around half of the expected increase previously, according to some estimates.

“So far, improved clarity has not been enough to offset a host of challenges—weak freight fundamentals, limited carrier profitability, elevated capital costs, and so on—that continue to keep fleets on the sidelines,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, at FTR. “Fleets are emphasizing cost control, maintenance discipline, and asset utilization over growth, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand until economic and market conditions firm. For truck manufacturers and suppliers, forward visibility remains limited, and order activity is likely to remain uneven until freight volumes and rates show a sustained recovery.”

ACT data: ACT reported that preliminary November Class 8 net orders, at 19,700 units, fell 4.7% annually, despite November being typically considered as the year’s third strongest order month.  

“Despite last month’s announcement regarding EPA’27 adding much needed clarity for the market, the obvious bottleneck to stronger order activity is lack of carrier profitability,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “Spot rates continue to tread along the bottom, and while supply is coming out of the market, demand in key freight sectors is lagging.”