Preliminary September Class 8 truck net orders see annual declines

Preliminary September Class 8 truck net orders saw annual declines, according to data respectively issued this week by FTR and ACT Research.

FTR reported that preliminary September Class 8 truck net orders, at 20,500 units, rose 60% over August and fell 41% annually, representing the ninth consecutive month of annual declines, which it called a concerning trend as order boards open for 2026 production. It added that orders were far below the 10-year September average of 29,499 units, underscoring fleet hesitancy amid trade tensions, tariff uncertainty, and broader economic headwinds weighing on freight demand.

It also said that both vocational and on-highway segments posted solid gains with the latter driving most of the sequential growth. But on-highway also accounts for the bulk of the annual decline, keeping the outlook cautious, it said.  Class 8 orders have totaled 237,467 units over the past 12 months, according to FTR.

And FTR also observed that the weak start to the 2026 order season shows that core industry pressures remain.

“Month-to-month gains offer only temporary relief as annual declines highlight weak freight demand, strained carrier profitability, and subdued fleet confidence,” said FTR. “This environment creates uncertainty for OEMs and suppliers, and order activity likely will remain volatile. Without a recovery in freight volumes and rates, fleets will continue to limit replacement and expansion, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand.”

What’s more, Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, observed how on September 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks, effective October 1.

“However, no official details have been released from the U.S. government yet,” he said. “It remains unclear when the tariff might be implemented and whether the tariff also covers medium-duty trucks, parts, or USMCA-compliant imports. The news has already rattled fleets, OEMs, and suppliers coping with weak demand, rising costs, and fragile supply chains. The tariff adds to an already difficult trade environment. Steel, aluminum, and copper duties remain at 50%, raising component costs, and reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners further complicate sourcing.

The immediate effect will be higher truck prices, assuming the tariff is officially implemented. Imported Class 8 trucks will face a 25% surcharge, and U.S.-built models may see added costs from imported parts. Some fleets are likely to delay or cancel orders, boosting demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle lifecycles. Reshoring may accelerate, but U.S. factories are hampered by labor constraints, high costs, and infrastructure limits. In the near term, the market faces higher prices, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing uncertainty.”

ACT data: ACT reported that September preliminary North America Class 8 net orders, at 20,800 units, were off 44% annually.

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders totaled 18,800 units, a 225k SAAR. On a 6-and 12-month basis, orders continue to trend down, at 178k and 235k, respectively,” said Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. “The longest for-hire downturn in history continues to weigh on tractor demand as freight rates continue to run below inflation levels. And even as more tariffs are imposed, the nation awaits a verdict on IEEPA tariffs in a case the Supreme Court will hear in early November. On top of tariffs, the industry awaits the announcement from the EPA on the future of low-NOx regulation. Quite the Q3 for the industry, and a challenging start to the opening of 2026 order boards.”