Armstrong & Associates, Inc.

As e-commerce sales surge toward $8 trillion, third-party logistics providers (3PLs) are evolving to handle higher order volumes, tighter delivery windows, and complex returns using automation, AI, and integrated warehouse management systems (WMS). By offering scalable fulfillment, reverse logistics, and real-time visibility, 3PLs help shippers of all sizes optimize operations, cut costs, and enhance customer satisfaction in a rapidly changing digital marketplace.

Third-party logistics (3PL) providers are grappling with geopolitical instability, fluctuating tariffs, rising costs, and labor shortages, while also facing pressure to accelerate e-commerce order fulfillment. Smaller 3PLs struggle to keep pace with larger peers due to high costs of automation, AI, and robotics. Despite these challenges, the U.S. 3PL market saw growth in 2024, with net revenues increasing by 1.6%.

The report, entitled “Working through the Uncertainty—Latest Third-Party Logistics Market Results and Outlook,” said that U.S. 3PL Market net revenues, which Armstrong defines as gross revenues less purchased transportation, increased 1.8%, to $131.5 billion in 2024, coming off of a 12.8% annual decline, to $129 billion, in 2023.

A new report issued by Brookfield, Wis.-based supply chain consultancy and global third-party logistics (3PL) research provider Armstrong & Associates, in collaboration with the National Home Delivery Association, examines the current state of a key aspect of the last-mile delivery market, big and bulky last-mile delivery.

Ongoing U.S. trade policy shifts—including new de minimis rules for Chinese shipments—are reshaping global logistics. With rising tariffs and reduced exemptions impacting cross-border e-commerce, Armstrong & Associates projects 2025 third-party logistics (3PL) revenue to hit $316.2 billion, up 4.5%, fueled by early-year growth despite increased uncertainty.