Key Ocean, Air, and Trade Trends as We Approach the New Year

As we look ahead to 2026, the global supply chain enters a chapter defined by relative stability but underscored by persistent uncertainty. After years of pandemic-driven instability and inflationary pressures, transportation rates across major modes have shown fewer large swings. However, this improvement does not guarantee the absence of volatility or complete smooth sailing. Structural forces—tariffs, trade policy, and geopolitical disruptions—will continue to shape how goods move around the world.

Ocean freight: stability with caveats

Ocean shipping remains the backbone of global trade, and in 2026, we expect supply to outpace demand with 1.5 million TEUs slated to join the global fleet. Normally, that would mean lower rates, but the picture is more complex. Ongoing diversions around the Suez Canal and congestion at Asian and European ports have temporarily tightened capacity, creating longer transit times and operational inefficiencies that will likely roll into next year. Keep in mind that if vessels return to shorter routes through the Suez Canal, the oversupply could become more pronounced.

Additionally, as we saw this year, ongoing changes in tariff and trade policies will likely continue influencing market demand and affecting where ocean carriers allocate their capacity, based on how new or shifting tariffs are implemented. For businesses, this means planning for volatility even in a market that looks calmer on the surface. 

Air freight: e-commerce keeps demand strong

International air traffic rose by 5.1% year-over-year with Asia Pacific carriers leading the growth at 7.4% year-over-year. Air cargo continues to benefit from global e-commerce growth, particularly outside the U.S. However, regulatory changes have reshaped trade lanes. Airlines have already adjusted capacity in response, and while demand remains strong, these shifts could drive further consolidation and nearshoring strategies in the new year. For shippers, the ability to pivot between modes and regions remains a competitive advantage.

Tariffs and trade policy: the wildcard

Perhaps the most significant driver of uncertainty in global supply chains is trade policy. Recent U.S. negotiations with China illustrate the continued fluidity on this topic: an announced 100% tariff shifted to tariff reductions and suspensions of maritime fines for one year. At the same time, newly proposed Section 301 tariffs, ongoing Section 232 investigations on certain commodities, and the Supreme Court case on IEEPA tariffs highlight how quickly the landscape could change. For example, if the Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs results in refunds, importers will need actionable insights fast, so tools like our U.S. Customs Analytics platform will be indispensable for visibility into duty data, helping make refund strategies more achievable, and enable smarter compliance.

And that is just related to U.S. tariffs. Evolving trade incentives around the world are driving shifts, such as India's Production Linked Incentive (PLI) program which continues to attract technology and automotive manufactures from the European Union (EU), Japan, and more. Also, the network of trade agreements across countries in Southeast Asia has prompted some companies and manufacturers to rethink their tariff optimization and compliance strategies.

On top of that, sustainability policies are adjusting, including regulations on emissions by the European Union Emission Trading System (ETS), which began increasing incrementally since 2024. In the new year, any shipping companies engaged in operations to or from EU or European Economic Area (EEA) ports will be required to monitor, report, and verify 100% of greenhouse gas emissions.
All these developments can influence sourcing decisions, cost structures, and even inventory strategies. Companies that monitor these shifts and build contingency plans will be better positioned to manage risk.

Resilience as strategy

In this environment, supply chain resilience is more than a buzzword; it’s a competitive advantage. Shippers should focus on:

• Modal flexibility: Be prepared to shift between ocean, air, and other modes, including exploring a combination of sea-air and LCL consolidation strategies, as market conditions change. Don’t forget your customs, inland and warehousing strategy either. Although these functions may be managed by different individuals within your organization, they collectively influence supply chain outcomes. Adopting a comprehensive approach—such as coordinating customs clearance and compliance with transportation planning for cross-border movements—can mitigate potential bottlenecks from modal transitions and facilitate a more seamless movement of goods across international borders.
• Diversified sourcing: With tariffs and trade tensions continuing to reshape sourcing patterns, consider alternatives in Southeast Asia, India, Mexico, and Canada. An intentional, tiered sourcing hierarchy that acts more like a framework for prioritizing geopolitical stability, business continuity and cost efficiency gives shippers the ability to make much more strategic adjustments. Integrating PO management technology into this approach helps maintain visibility and control across multiple suppliers and regions, reducing risk when pivoting sourcing strategies.
• Technology adoption: Leverage AI-driven scenario planning and digital visibility tools to anticipate disruptions and optimize costs. Even the most advanced shippers are slowed down by manual workflows and siloed systems. We’ve seen first-hand how AI is making a difference. For example, our Always-On Logistics Planner™, which is powered by our fleet of 30+ AI agents, is handling many of these processes faster and more reliably for shippers.
• Risk mapping: Proactively identify vulnerabilities, alternative routes, and contingency plans for geopolitical or climate-driven events. These events can be unpredictable, but established contingency plans can help minimize financial losses and operational delays.

The big picture

2026 will not be defined by runaway volatility, but by structural forces that require foresight and adaptability. Ocean and air freight, inland transportation, and customs will remain critical, tariffs will continue to shape trade flows, and geopolitical risks—from the Suez Canal to regional conflicts—will demand proactive planning.

Our charge is clear: build supply chains that are not only efficient but resilient. Invest in visibility, embrace innovation, and stay agile in the face of change.

For more insights, view the C.H. Robinson 2026 Freight Market Outlook Guide for a look across transportation modes and regions.