FTR’s Shippers Conditions Index shows modest growth

The new edition of the Shippers Conditions Index (SCI), which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, headed in the right direction.

FTR describes the SCI as an indicator that sums up all market influences that affect the transport environment for shippers, with a reading above zero being favorable and a reading below being unfavorable and a “less-than-ideal environment for shippers.”

For October, the most recent month for which data is available, the SCI reading rose to 0.3, after September’s -0.5. Which was below August’s 1.3 reading that was preceded by a -2.0 reading in July. Which was preceded by June’s -2.6 reading, with May, April, and March at -0.9, -0.6, and -0.1, respectively. That was preceded by -0.3 February reading. The January SCI was 0.6 and was preceded by October’s 1.3 reading, that fell from September’s 4.6 reading.

FTR said that most market factors were more favorable for shippers in October, but stronger freight rates offset most of those improvements.  And it added that the current outlook is basically neutral through mid-2026 before turning mildly negative for shippers, but the major delay in economic data due to the government shutdown has temporarily hampered FTR’s analysis. FTR also noted that expects to have much more clarity within a month or so.

“Although we still lack comprehensive insights into the state of the U.S. economy, a recent Federal Reserve revision of industrial production estimates implies that freight demand is even weaker than we thought,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “That’s good news for shippers in the near term as it suggests that freight capacity might still exceed volume significantly, but it raises the prospect of a faster and stronger market tightening when freight demand does recover. We believe the freight market has entered an inevitable transition phase that could yield volatility in the coming months.”