IANA reports annual Q4 and 2015 intermodal volume gains

Intermodal volumes for the fourth quarter of 2015 were mostly in line with both volumes and trends that were intact through the first three quarters of the year, according to the Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Report issued this week by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

Total intermodal volume movements—at 4,122,522—were up 0.3 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2014, which was well below the third quarter’s 3.4 percent annual growth rate. 

Domestic containers saw the highest annual growth rate in the fourth quarter, up 5.2 percent at 1,759,245, while trailers continued to stumble, falling 15 percent to 363,295. All domestic equipment saw a 1.1 percent annual gain at 2,122,540. ISO, or international containers, were down slightly, seeing a 0.6 percent decrease to 1,999,982.

For all of 2015, total intermodal volume movements were up 2.8 percent over 2014 at 16,736,994. Trailers were off 6.0 percent annually at 1,566,702, with domestic containers up 5.1 percent at 6,773,661, and all domestic equipment up 2.8 percent at 8,340,363.  

In assessing fourth quarter volumes, IANA said that the relatively low annual growth rate speaks to three primary themes: solid domestic container gains, which had a higher growth rate than both the second and third quarters; the ongoing decline of trailer volume, which IANA said has historically been the most volatile of intermodal markets, with intermodal freight having been pulled away from trailers for some time; and a mild decline in international container volumes, which saw seasonal fluctuations throughout 2015, due to the West Coast port labor dispute and congestion that slowed first quarter volumes, followed by a nearly 7 percent gain in the second quarter, and a 4 percent increase in the third quarter amid signs that imports were seeing strong gains in tandem with an increasing inventory-to-sales ratio that IANA said was a sign that inventories were growing too fast in 2015, with a fourth quarter slowdown expected.

International imports were also impacted by weak holiday sales and high inventory levels in the fourth quarter, but IANA said it is likely to bounce back due to a strong dollar, low fuel prices, and imports representing a rising share of consumer spending, with the first quarter expected to be higher than usual because of easier annual comparisons as the first quarter of 2015 was impacted by the West Coast port labor situation. 

In an interview, IANA President and CEO Joni Casey said that fourth quarter and full-year 2015 results were mostly in line with expectations.

At one point during the third quarter it looked like the international side of the equation was going to finish stronger,” she said. “And in comparison to last year, we didn’t expect intermodal trailers to fall as much as they did.  Higher inventory levels and softer over-the-road capacity most likely influenced these trends.”

The continued strength in domestic containers, which saw more than 5 percent growth for both the fourth quarter and all of 2015, was due to various factors, explained Casey, including a steady stream of diversions from highway loads, more consistent, reliable rail service, and continued investment in the intermodal network.

As for how intermodal’s 2016 prospects are shaping up, Casey said the outlook is largely positive.

“Given the challenges that the industry faced during 2015 and the positive results in spite of these challenges, I think that intermodal is posed for a pretty good year,” she said. “We are projecting continued gains in the domestic container market and an uptick for international shipments probably by the second quarter.”