Tariffs continue to cast a long shadow over freight markets heading into 2026

With one year ending and a new one soon beginning, there is often a sense of a change or a fresh start coming. While that may sound good on paper, when it comes to the current state of the freight, or logistics, economy, it is more than likely that that prospects of meaningful shifts, or changes, in the current landscape, may not represent anything more than wishful thinking.

There are probably a few different reasons for that, but the main one is related to what can be viewed as the operating thesis of 2025, which is, in a word, tariffs.

It would be difficult to find another word that has, in a sense, upended global trade patterns in the way in which it has in 2025. At this point, it is fair to say we are all well-versed in regards to the impact that tariffs, as well as shifts in trade policy, have had, not only the global economy but also, of course, the freight and logistics sectors and economies as well, too.

Perhaps the most notable example of that was seen earlier this year, when tariffs on United States-bound imports from China climbed to 145%, effectively shuttering supply chains for various for a period. Following that, in an effort to counter any further unforeseen shifts in tariff rates or trade policy, more and more shippers focused on getting as much cargo as it could to U.S. ports, in the form of front loading and pull-forward efforts, prior to the mid-November expiration date in a U.S.-China pause on tariffs placed on each other, which subsequently resulted in an agreement, albeit an agreement still replete with tension and uncertainty.

During those periods of high import activity, many U.S. ports set new monthly records, with July coming in at 3.01 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), topping the 3 million TEU mark for the first time, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7).

Following the tariff-driven surge, U.S.-bound imports have trended down and are expected to remain low for a while heading into 2026, with estimates varying as to when the numbers will again point to growth.

S&P Global Market Intelligence Director Chris Rogers explained that a key driver for the gains earlier in the year was related to how U.S. manufacturers and retailers may have over-built inventories, which could lead to what he described as a rapid slowdown in supply chain activity and trade heading into 2026.

That was also supported by the lack of a true Peak Season in 2026, too, but instead, Rogers noted it is more likely that occurred in August and September, as opposed to October in a more traditional year, with Rogers calling it a “tariff hangover.”

To be sure, there are more than a few moving parts to examine in assessing where things stand and where they may be headed. First, there is the fact, as Rogers observed, that a deceleration in trade is starting to accelerate, with the first quarter of 2026 expected to be a drag, for two reasons.

“First, there are very big inventories coming out of the peak season that need to be worked through,” he said. “Companies have been a lot less promotional, and, so if the sales aren't as good, then customers might stay on the sidelines. The second part is you're comparing to the first quarter of 2025 which was an absolutely stellar quarter, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see a double-digit slowdown. The uncertainties we are facing are historical, but that does not mean we should be hysterical. We are seeing that the magnitudes of these things that are happening are much bigger than what we have seen in the past. But they are all things we have dealt with in the past.”

A tough start to 2026 was also forecasted in the Port Tracker report, with Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett stating that it is becoming clear that the White House’s tariff policy is not achieving its economic goals.

To that end, Hackett said that these tariffs represent the largest tax hike since 1993, coupled with the results of these tariffs coming in the form of weakened demand, from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year. 

It looks like that even though we are entering a new year, there is a strong chance that, in some key ways, it will look like the previous one. Which is not ideal as supply chain stakeholders continue to need, and really, require, a strong growth catalyst. That catalyst is not here, at least not yet. But as we have seen, especially in 2025, things can change very quickly. Will that be the case as 2026 moves on? For now, it is far too early to tell.