U.S.-bound imports remain high but could see declines as summer approaches, notes Port Tracker report

United States-bound imports are pegged to remain at a high level through the spring but potentially be followed by annual declines as summer approaches, amid an ongoing flurry of tariff actions by the White House and subsequent retaliatory moves by various trading partners, according to the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was issued this week by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April. Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”

For January, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 2.22 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), representing a 4.4% gain over December and a 13.4% annual increase.  

Port Tracker issued projections for February and the subsequent months, including:

• February, at 2.07 million TEU, for a 6.1% annual increase, which would mark the busiest February, which is traditionally the slowest month of the year, due to the Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China, in three years;
• March, at 2.14 million TEU, for an 10.8% annual increase;
• April, at 2.13 million TEU, for an 5.7% annual increase;
• May, at 2.14 million TEU, for a 2.8% annual increase;
• June, at 2.07 million TEU, for a 3.2% annual decrease; and
• July, at 1.99 million TEU, for a 13.9% annual decrease

The report said that the projected June and July decreases would mark the first ones going back to September 2023, with the July tally being the lowest monthly total going back to March 2024’s 1.93 million TEU. What’s more, the report’s authors observed that even though tariffs are a key factor in terms of the projected summer declines, U.S.-bound imports were elevated last summer, in advance of an anticipated East and Gulf Coast ports work stoppage, which ended up lasting only three days.

The report pegged the first half of 2025 to come in at 12.78 million TEU, which would represent a 5.8% annual gain.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the ongoing fluctuation regarding tariff policies presents myriad supply chain challenges.

“The situation remains fluid, with the world not knowing what tariffs will be announced next or which that are announced will actually be imposed or when,” wrote Hackett. “Amid this confusion from the White House, the world trade and political order is degenerating into chaos that could trigger a downward turn in the global economy and potential recessions in the United States, Canada and Mexico. There are no winners in this scenario, particularly not consumers and manufacturers in the United States. The tariffs are effectively a tax that will quickly be passed on to consumers and, in turn, will result in higher levels of inflation.”

Hackett also noted that in addition to tariffs, the recent announcement by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, calling for a new fee between $1 million-to-$1.5 million for each time a Chinese-built ship docks at a U.S. port, if enacted, will lead to additional costs passed onto cargo owners and also consumers, as a large number of the global container fleet has been built in China.