U.S.-bound imports trend down in May, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound imports saw May declines, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The firm reported that May imports, at 2.71 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), fell 5.7% annually, with West Coast-bound imports falling 11.8% for the same period (snapping an 11-month stretch of growth), due to the implementation of tariffs in early April, as well as shorter shipping times, as imports at “all other ports were off only 1.1%. U.S. merchandise imports, or total dollar value, increased 1.7% annually, including a 19.8% decline for China shipments, with imports from Canada and Mexico, down 2.8% and 15.6%, respectively. And May imports came in below April’s 2.78 million TEU. On a year-to-date basis through May, imports, at 12.77 million TEU, are down 5.3%.

In its data, S&P Global Market Intelligence observed that capital goods imports fell 11.0% annually and 15.0% sequentially, which included a 14.6% decline in electrical components and a 14.7% decline in electrical equipment, reflecting what the firm called a “slowdown in industrial investment due to economic uncertainties,” and imports of consumer durables were off 11.2%, following an 18.2% annual April gain. Conversely, it noted that imports of auto parts were up 4.2%, following the earlier application of Section 232 duties. And imports of consumer electronics and leisure goods, including toys and exercise, dropped 15.8%, from April to May and down 25.3% annually, whereas imports for these segments averaged a 12.6% annual gain over the previous 10 years. U.S.-bound apparel imports were off 14.8% annually.

What’s more, the firm observed that as imports have fallen by 5.9% for leisure goods and 0.6%% for consumer electronics over the last three months through May, “a rapid refill period will be needed before the July 9 deadline for negotiations on IEEPA tariffs to be completed.”

In an interview with LM, S&P Global Market Intelligence Head of Supply Chain Research Chris Rogers said that what happened in May, especially the second half of the month, is that all of the vessels that should have left Asia in April did not leave, due to the timing of the White House’s reciprocal tariffs.

“What we saw in May was the shipping pause that happened in early April,” he said. “We see that because the West Coast dropped more than the East Coast, with the drop in the East Coast happening in late May and early June—which is the kind of horrible timing effect that we had to deal with—and what is happening in the aggregate. When you look down the list of which, which products saw the biggest turnaround, it is not surprising to see consumer goods down a lot, due to the big tariff build up. We are just before the big peak shipping season, so companies had a bit of flexibility. Capital goods are down, partly because manufacturers are producing less, but firms are also pulling back on their investments in new machinery, leading to the 11.0% drop in capital goods and 14.6% drop on electrical components. That’s American manufacturers making less; it is not just American consumers doing less, it is manufacturers as well.”

When adding leisure goods to consumer electronics, which represent a large amount of the goods sold during Peak Season, Rogers said is where the sequential drop is evident, whereas those products have been up 12.6% on average over the previous 10 years, rather than the 15.8% sequential decrease seen from April to May.

Addressing Peak Season, Rogers said that with there being only a 90-day gap leading up to the end of reciprocal tariff pause on July 9, coupled with some ocean shipments needing 60 days to get across the Pacific trade lanes, or as low as 48 days depending on which service is used, there is a risk that those shipments arriving late, leading to the question of if everyone can get shipments in on time?

“It doesn't matter that you left China in June, because if your shipment arrives on July 10, have a problem,” he said. “Absolutely, we'd expect to see an accelerated shipment period in to July. You can take a bet that there may be a delay, should the White House shift policy and things get extended a month. That would also have the advantage of aligning everything with the China negotiations, which are running through August 12, and would be cleaner.”

And he added that companies have been pretty clear about what their strategies are for dealing with tariffs, whether it is trying to ship early or negotiating with suppliers, or increasing customer prices.

“That is really where the rubber hits the road,” he said. “If these tariffs do take effect in July, that means shippers cannot ship their whole Peak Season in the month anyway. You are going to be shipping in August and September anyway. A lot of retailers have 90-to-120 days of inventory and may have worked through that as they get to the holidays. So, if the companies are going to raise prices, it is not an exaggeration to say what happens between July and August will define how successful or otherwise the retail sector will be during this coming holiday season.

While S&P Global Market Research has not yet issued an estimate for June import volumes, Rogers said that June is likely to be what he called a “big month,” in the 15%-to-20% range.

While the biggest part of the year, in terms of activity, is yet to come, Rogers said that 2025 has not been a bad year for imports, in that retailers don’t necessarily feel like they are going to run out of stock, given the 5.5% annual year-to-date increase through May. Which he said comes with the caveat that individual products can always run out of inventory, but it is too soon to call for empty store shelves, too.