U.S.-bound imports remain on an uneven, tariff-driven path, with declines expected in the coming months, says Port Tracker report

Following an expected June rebound, United States-bound imports are pegged to subsequently decline after tariffs, which were previously paused, go into effect, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

While there was an expectation that the White House’s reciprocal tariffs would go into effect on July 9, they were delayed earlier this week to August 1, the report observed. What’s more, President Trump rolled out tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries and indicated letters to other countries will also be sent out. As for U.S.-bound imports from China, which are expected to kick in next month, the report said that questions remain on next steps.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers have brought in as much merchandise as possible ahead of the reciprocal tariffs taking effect, and the latest extension to Aug. 1 is greatly appreciated. Nonetheless, uncertainty over tariffs makes it increasingly difficult for retailers to plan, especially small businesses that have no capacity to absorb tariffs. Tariffs are paid by U.S. companies, not foreign countries or businesses, and ultimately drive up prices for American families while impacting the availability of products. It is vital for the administration to finalize negotiations with our trading partners and provide stability and certainty for U.S. retailers.”

For May, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 1.95 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking an 11.8% sequential decline and a 6.4% annual increase, with the latter marking the first annual decline going back to September 2023 and the lowest tally in any month since May 2024’s 1.93 million TEU.

Port Tracker issued projections for June and the subsequent months, including:

• June, at 2.06 million TEU, up 5.9% over May and down 3.7% annually;
• July, at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% annually;
• August, at 2.08 million TEU, for a 10.4% annual decrease;
• September, at 1.82 million TEU, for a 19.9% annual decrease, which would represent the lowest monthly tally since December 2023’s 1.87 million TEU;
• October, at 1.81 million TEU, a 19.2% annual decline;
• November, at 1.7 million TEU, down 21.3% annually and the lowest-volume month since April 2023

The report explained that the aggregate declines, from August through November, are tariff-related, with the large annual percentage declines partly attributed to imports in late 2024 being elevated related to concerns over concerns related to potential East and Gulf Coast port strikes.  And it added that should these volume projections come to fruition, the first half of 2025 would come in at 12.63 million TEU, a 4.5% annual increase, topping the 12.54 million TEU forecast made in the previous report and short of the 12.78 million TEU forecast from earlier in 2025 and prior to the April 2 reciprocal tariffs announcement.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the flurry of tariff-related announcements from the White House has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty.

“The three-month delay in April’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs triggered a surge in demand and brought hope of more normalized trading conditions,” wrote Hackett. “Carriers switched capacity to the Transpacific routes, and small, independent carriers entered the trade. But uncertainty soon returned as consumer demand began to falter, resulting in a reduction in shipping capacity to balance supply with demand. The outlook for container volume globally remains cloudy in this environment of uncertainty. The global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable. Instead, it has been forced to contend with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility.”