U.S.-bound container imports are expected to see declines through year end and into 2026, reports Port Tracker

On the heels of what it described as a near-record peak over the summer, United States-bound imports are looking at steady declines over the balance of the year, driven by increasing tariffs, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

Even though reciprocal tariffs on various U.S. global trading partners went into effect on August 1, that was followed by a federal appeals court ruling, which stated that the White House’s usage of the International Emergency Economic Protection Act (IEEPA) was illegal, while the tariffs remain in place as the White House appeals the ruling, the report stated. It added that planned U.S. tariff increases on China were delayed until November 10 amid ongoing negotiations, coupled with the U.S. rolling out an additional 25% tariff on India, at the end of August, with the total U.S. tariff rate on India now at 50%.

“We have seen the implementation of reciprocal tariffs across the globe, with a number of key trading partners being subjected to tariffs higher than the earlier 10% tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “We also continue to see more and more sectoral tariffs impacting a wider scope of products. Retailers have stocked up as much as they can ahead of tariff increases, but the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success. These tariffs and disruptions to the supply chain are adding costs that will ultimately lead to higher prices for American consumers.”

For July, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports came in at 2.36 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), with the report’s authors saying that this tally excludes numbers for New York/New Jersey, Port Everglades, and Miami, marking a 20.1% gain over July, a period when importers were bringing in merchandise in advance of tariffs going into effect on August 1, while posting a 1.8% annual gain. This tally would mark the second highest-volume month on record, trailing May 2022, at 2.4 million TEU.

Port Tracker issued projections for August and the subsequent months, including:

• August, at 2.28 million TEU, for a 1.7% annual decrease (higher than the 2.2 million TEU expected before tariffs on China were paused and also the new tariff on India);
• September, at 2.12 million TEU, for a 6.8% annual decrease;
• October, at 1.95 million TEU, a 13.2% annual decline;
• November, at 1.74 million TEU, down 19.7% annually;
• December, at 1.7 million TEU, down 20.1% annually, which would mark the lowest-volume month since March 2023’s 1.62 million TEU; and
• January, at 1.8 million TEU, down 19.1% annually

The report attributed the expected declines to tariffs, adding that they are due to an early 2025 Peak Season, as well as imports in late 2024 coming in higher related to concerns about port strikes, at the time.

For the first half of 2025, Port Tracker said that total volume, at 12.53 million TEU, rose 3.5% annually, with calendar year 2025 expected to be down 3.4% annually, to 24.7 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the White House is using tariffs as a punitive tool against allies and enemies alike, noting there has been a shift from the original announced purpose of the tariffs to address unfair trade practices to now being used as a tool for a wide range of national policies, with the result having a significant impact on bilateral trade and economic relations.

“The container shipping lines are reporting adjustments to their financial forecasts for the remainder of the year, with many indicating a shift to losses by the fourth quarter due to a reduction in global trade and the oversupply of container vessel capacity,” wrote Hackett.