Top 30 Ocean Carriers: Navigating a still-volatile seascape

The gale flags are flying. Uncertainty rules the open seas.

“Don’t take your crash helmets off,” exclaimed Bill Rooney, executive vice president at Kuehne + Nagel, when he addressed attendees of the recent Agriculture Transportation Coalition Conference. “This isn’t coming to an end anytime soon.”

The reasons are many. Geopolitical events are escalating. Global trade and trade relations are uncertain. Tariffs, product categories and deadlines announced by President Trump continue to shift. Shippers feel constrained and uncertain, and thye find making important supply chain decisions increasingly difficult.

Meanwhile, the world is in a more tenuous state than it has been in decades. Escalating this is man-made famine in Gaza; tensions between Isarel, Hamas and Iran; the unresolved Russian war on Ukraine; and continuing attacks by Houthi rebels on ships transiting the Red Sea that have caused container lines to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.

“Geopolitical shifts, changing tariff frameworks, and ongoing service network adjustments are reshaping global trade patterns, with China’s diversification strategies diverting volumes from U.S. routes,” says Philip Damas, managing director, head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, a maritime consultancy. “Tariff adjustments and shifting trade policies are keeping global shipping demands uncertain.”

Case in point: Recently, the U.S./China tariff truce has been extended by 90 days to November 10. “This is easing near-term pressure, but leaving structural challenges intact,” says Damas.

Tariff whiplash impact

Over the last several years, the traditional “peak season” for container shipping that occurred between weeks 28 and 36 before tapering off toward the end of the year has been significantly altered due to disruptions caused by the pandemic, port congestion, equipment shortages, ship re-routings, and the U.S./China tariffs.

But this year, the anticipation of Trump’s tariffs caused peak season to come early for container shipping, especially those operating on trans-Pacific routes. Those tariffs went into effect on August 7 after a series of false starts. Consequently, many shippers rushed to get goods loaded between the April 2 tariff announcement and the April 9 “load-by” deadline to avoid new tariff deadlines and other potential disruptions.

According to Florencia Serra, a spokesperson with Maersk North American, trans-Pacific import demand picked up in June, with bookings rebounding after a slower period. “In response to stronger volumes, we reinstated vessel capacity that had been downsized earlier in the year to better align with current demand,” she says, adding that by July most of the earlier tariff-related backlog had cleared.

Maersk also noted how shippers were adjusting sourcing, transportation, and storage strategies in July to stay ahead of disruptions.

Hapag-Lloyd reported in a press briefing in early August how the volatile market caused the line to significantly increase its transport volume. This resulted in its liner shipping segment ending the first half of 2025 up $10.4 billion. “This was mainly due to an 11% increase in transport volumes,” says Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd AG.

Jansen also noted how the new U.S. tariff policy led to a volatile development in demand and freight rates in the first half of 2025.

“Uncertainly around U.S. tariffs has dampened demand with the new tariffs taking effect in August,” says Jansen. “The uncertainly surrounding tariffs negatively impacted U.S. imports and resulted in a subdued peak season thus far. While the implementation of new tariffs in August should provide more planning clarity for shippers, the finalization of trade deals is still pending, and additional sectoral tariffs are looming.”

Ship capacity

During the early peak rush, industry observers commented on how container lines employed the entirety of their fleets, thereby straining capacity and logistics infrastructure. “Everything was sailing,” says Stefan Verberckmoes, senior analyst at Alphaliner. “Only nine ships were scrapped, and those were for ships in the very small 320 TEU to 800 TEU range,”

These whipsaw conditions particularly impacted many seaports that don’t have the infrastructure or the ability to plan for such sudden surges in capacity, despite the fact many have implemented strategies on how to manage fluctuations.   

“Hapag-Lloyd says that it’s losing 2% of its capacity due to waiting times at seaports,” says Verberckmoes. These challenges, he surmises, will only escalate with the global container ship order book reaching new record highs.

“The order book is immense and is nowadays reaching a new record high of ten million TEU with 7 million to be delivered in the next three years, but with also new buildings already ordered for 2030 delivery,” says Verberckmoes.

China holds a significant majority of global container ship orders by volume, with 70.65% of orders in 2024. Verbeckmoes points out, however, that the Trump Administration has proposed steep levies on Chinese-made ships arriving at U.S. ports as from mid-October.

Container line MSC recently told CNBC that such fines would have “very, very significant” consequences for how the maritime industry serves the United States.

Post peak

With President Trump’s tariffs now in place (the probability of new “reciprocal tariffs” withstanding), industry experts expect the exceptional demand for ocean transportation services to disappear in the second half of 2025.

“The peak season started much earlier than usual and will end with weak traffic volumes,” Damas predicts..

Freightos’ analysts concur, stating that by August, there was less of a last-minute rush by shippers to load cargo ahead of Trumps’s August 7 deadline “because frontloading to beat the original July deadline and shippers tiring of tariff-driven whiplash made this window much less urgent.”

In the absence of a traditional peak season, Damas predicts that carriers may rely on targeted blank sailings and service modifications to manage capacity and stabilize rates.

But other storm clouds are gathering on the horizon

“The pre-tariff cargo surge has faded, and a wave of new vessel deliveries risks deepening fleet overcapacity,” says Damas. “Recent U.S. trade deals with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam have lowered some tariffs, adding a measure of optimism, but the overall market outlook remains fragile.”

Rates?

Ocean rates have been a big concern for shippers, given that supply chain disruptions and the sudden flux of the uploading of cargo prior to the tariffs going into effect led to higher freight rates. Rates escalated from May through early June. Now many experts forecast downward trends for rates, post peak season.

Verberckmoes finds that once the frontloaded peak season cargo cleared and demand softened, rates have fallen. “This is remarkable as the sector is still facing a shortage of tonnage. It can only be explained by increased competition between the carriers,” he says.

Data from the Drewry World Container Index shows that spot container freight rates from Asia to Los Angeles and New York have halved since the beginning of the year, as the pre-tariff cargo surge petered out.

“Year-long contract rates initially strengthened in the first half of the year, but rates for contracts negotiated recently were softer,” Damas says.

By the third week in August, Drewry’s World Container Index showed rates decreased 4% to $2,250 per 40-foot container, marking the tenth consecutive week of decline for rates.

Eytan Buchman, CMO at Freightos, finds that despite the August 1 executive order by President Trump that suddenly increased tariffs on a number of countries, trans-Pacific ocean rates have been surprisingly steady.

Freightos reported on August 11 that West Coast prices have held at about $2,300/FEU for three straight weeks. “East Coast rates are easing—down 4% to $3,950/FEU. Asia to North Europe prices have been parked at roughly $3,400/FEU since early July,” says Buchman.  

Even lanes facing imminent tariff hikes—like Vietnam and India to Long Beach—barely budged, although Indonesia saw a modest 8% bump.

“This largely stems from a prepared-for-anything mentality that shippers have adapted after years of getting hit by sucker punches from everything from pandemics to trade wars and actual wars,” says Buckman.

However, experts note that the big shift occurring today doesn’t regard shipping rates; it’s in the seasonality.

“Heavy frontloading of shipments earlier this year to dodge earlier tariff deadlines means the peak-of-peak season is probably behind us,” says Buchman. “That’s why, even with the possibility of another 90-day extension for China, any rebound in demand will likely be muted.”

This isn’t just the case for shippers in the U.S., but those abroad, he emphasized. “In Europe where congestion is persistent, rates are drifting,” he said. “Asia–Med prices just slipped below Asia–North Europe for the first time since November after seven weeks of declines.”

Ocean Cargo: The sky is not falling, but beware

The outlook for flat traffic levels and continuing supply growth in the next two to three quarters is creating a perfect environment for over supply again in ocean container markets.

Philip Damas, managing director and head of Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, surmises that container lines will aim to contain over-capacity by cancelling sailings and by demolishing older ships. “Meanwhile, ongoing port congestion and Red Sea issues may absorb some of the structural over-capacity,” he says.

But simultaneously, approximately 250,000 TEUs of ship capacity per quarter will continue to enter the market. “During calendar 2026, about 190 new containerships will have been delivered by shipyards,” says Damas.

Although the tariff uncertainty created through August has become more moderate, Damas advises that shippers still need to consider the different types of risks that can or will affect their operations.

“This includes the effect of new U.S. fees on China-built ships, other new regulatory costs and new surcharges,” says Damas. “Everybody is talking about risks in ocean transport operations and procurement.”

As the container shipping market weakens in the second half of 2025 and beyond, it’s Drewry’s view that carriers will lower service levels (and capacity) and compensate for softer base freight rates by raising surcharges.

“The days of low or no risks in transport execution and in transport contracts are gone,” says Damas.

On the fleet expansion front, experts note how carriers have been trimming capacity instead of adding it to keep rates afloat. “And we’re seeing more flexible port calls as they chase demand,” says Eytan Buchman, CMO at Freightos.

For U.S. importers, the negotiating table is now all about capacity discipline and schedule reliability. “With carriers quick to blank sailings, shippers should be pushing for contract clauses that protect space and lock in surcharges—because in this environment, the rates may be calm, but the rules of the game are shifting fast,” adds Buchman.