U.S.-bound imports see November declines, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports saw an annual decline in November, according to data issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

November imports, at 2.63 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), decreased 3.2% annually, falling for the third consecutive month, and were down sequentially compared to October’s 2.71 million TEU.

And November also came in below September’s 2.72 million TEU, August’s 2.9 million TEU, and July’s 3.01 million TEU (which topped the 3 million TEU mark for the first time and came on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7).

Through the first 11 months of 2025, total imports, at 30.19 million TEU, are up 2% annually. The firm previously noted that, for the fourth quarter, it estimates U.S.-bound containerized freight imports to decline by 14.4% annually, following a 0.6% third quarter annual gain, with the import downturn expected to continue through the third quarter of 2026—with the fastest rate of decline expected to be for imports Asia—with imports from mainland China pegged to fall 23.2% and imports from the EU pegged to rise 0.4%, due in part to a trade deal reached with the U.S. for a flat 15% tariff rate, followed by a decline early next year, when the pre-tariff front loading period from the same timeframe for the previous year is lapped.

S&P Global Market Intelligence observed that despite November’s 3.2% annual decline came in at a lower rate than initially expected and was aided by a 3.9% gain in automotive parts shipments, “as the impact on supply chains from Section 232 tariffs has normalized. And it added that November represented what it called a slower-than-normal seasonal downturn, with imports up 0.7% compared to October on a days-adjusted basis, with the same period in 2024 at 0.5%. Which it noted was much slower than 3.8% sequential increased on average from 2015-2024.

In an interview with LM, S&P Global Market Intelligence Research Director Chris Rogers said that November came in with better import numbers than anticipated in the aggregate.

“We were expecting to probably be down closer to 6% or 7%, rather than around 3%,” he said. rather down 3%,” he said. “From a seasonality perspective, part of that is it has tracked atypically versus previous years. Normally you'd expect, on a days-adjusted basis, for November to be down on October. Interestingly, both last year and this year, it was up a touch. Last year, it was all the stuff about potential port strikes. I think this year there were some suspicions that there might be another round of tariffs coming at the beginning of November that might have led to a bit of a pickup, maybe also a bit of relief in August, that there wasn't more coming out [in terms of tariff actions].

August was very much what was expected in terms of the tariff rates, yeah, and it was the goods that left in August, that landed in November. So, you're maybe seeing a little bit of that sigh of relief. Clearly, the concern is with having had a relatively still down November, but still well up on history, is if we then are going to see more of a collapse in December and then going into the first quarter, particularly if the holiday season doesn't turn out to be everything that everyone hoped it would be.”

S&P Global Market Intelligence pointed out that November U.S.-bound shipments from mainland China were down 17.2% annually in November, with the firm said may slow following the November cut in IEEPA tariff rates, whereas shipments from the ASEAN region headed up 21.9% in November which it said reflects tactical reshoring for products not bought from mainland China. It also noted that shipments from India dropped 18.7%, due to the 50% tariff in goods from India to the U.S. related to India’s oil imports from Russia.

While there was a reduction in the tariff rates, Rogers observed that won’t be reflected in data until imports that are being shipped into the U.S. in January and February, as the Lunar New Year approaches, with a clearer picture likely to take a bit longer to come through.

S&P Global Market Intelligence pointed out that November U.S.-bound shipments are expected to be up 1.8% annually for calendar year 2025, minus any reflationary policies, big tax cuts, or any unexpected actions taken by the Federal Reserve. As for 2026, it is forecasting a 2% annual gain.

When asked about the 2025 Peak Season, Rogers said it is hard to fully assess until retail sales numbers come in.

“But I think supply chains have shown yet again, that they are adaptive and capable of making sure the goods are available when they're needed,” he said. “But the concern is that we've got too much inventory going into next year. We had the early [peak season] wave, then we had a pause, then we had kind of a dribble in near the end. Shelves have stayed full, but costs have gone up, and I am concerned that one of the reasons that the trade numbers have been too high is because maybe retailers have been too optimistic about what their sales are going to be. Only the full year data will tell us for sure.”