Following months of turmoil, China–U.S. blank sailings settle down, notes project44 data

Blank sailings on major China–U.S. trade routes have finally started to calm down after a rough stretch earlier this year, according to new data from project44. After months of spikes tied to tariff changes, carriers appear to be settling into new trade patterns as demand levels out.

Blank sailings between China and the U.S. are down sharply from their peak in the spring. project44 reports an 82% drop from April’s high point, a sign that carriers adjusted too far earlier in the year as importers rushed to move goods before new tariffs took effect. Cancellations on U.S.–to-China routes also fell, dropping 83% from their May high.

Throughout 2024, blank sailings ranged from 10 to 32 per month in each direction. That all changed in 2025, when carriers began cancelling sailings at a much faster pace. Cancellations jumped in April, May, and June as importers pulled orders forward and carriers tried to match lower demand. Another smaller spike followed in September as new tariff actions loomed.

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