BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index reveals freight market optimism amid complex conditions

The new edition of the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index, for the third quarter of 2025, which was recently issued by Tampa, Fla.-based, non-asset-based 3PL BlueGrace Logistics, highlighted various data points pointing to what it called a complex but active freight environment.

BlueGrace describes this report as an important tool for measuring expected expansion or contraction within the logistics sector. It adds that by analyzing revenue forecasts, inventory levels, and order volumes, the index provides industry stakeholders with valuable insights into what to expect in the next quarter and how these trends reflect the freight market.

Data for the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index is aggregated through a survey of shippers and reflects all freight transportation modes, while correlating growth or shrinkage to the overall industry volume of shipments and the price of products, according to BlueGrace.

On the revenue side, the report found that 71% of respondents forecasted positive revenue growth, down 3% from the second quarter, and up 6% compared to the first quarter. And it added that 16% of respondents are neutral, up from 12% in the second quarter, with 14% negative, matching the second quarter.

BlueGrace explained that these findings indicate that pricing, volume, or a combination of both, are expected to accelerate, while the median holding steady at 1.0% indicates a moderate central tendency.

Looking at inventory levels, BlueGrace’s Q3 findings found that positive inventory sentiment increased 42%, matching the second quarter, with neutral sentiment flat, at 44%, and negative sentiment was down 5%, to 9%. The report explained that the decline in negative responses suggests that supply chains are preparing for a more sustained period of growth.

In terms of order growth sentiment, the report stated 55% of respondents are expecting increased orders, its highest tally in more than a year, and up 16.3% over the second quarter. Neutral and negative sentiment came in at 33% (down 18.7%) and 12% (up 2.4%), respectively.

BlueGrace explained that this hints at stronger volume expectations, contributing to the rebound in revenue sentiment, adding that certain verticals, like agriculture, construction, and manufacturing may have anticipated trade headwinds and pulled forward inventory to avoid rising tariff costs—with others taking a leaner approach and importing less and maintaining minimal stock to avoid tariff exposure should the policy changes end up being short-lived.

“This quarter’s Index shows shippers navigating a more complex freight environment, with strong order optimism but growing divergence in strategy due to tariff uncertainty,” said Adam White, Vice President of Marketing at BlueGrace Logistics. “As we track these shifting concerns, especially around pricing, capacity, and inventory posture, the LCI continues to offer a forward-looking lens into how the industry is adapting in real time.”

The company observed that key supply chain challenges continue to shape priorities, noting how service expectations remained the top concern for Q3, while freight rate volatility moved into second place and market volatility climbed.

“These trends reflect growing concern among shippers around cost control, capacity stability, and the ability to meet customer expectations in a persistently uncertain freight environment,” it said.