Q2 U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index shows signs of improvement

The second quarter edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which was released this week, signaled what it called “signs of recovery,” following first quarter freight volume and spending declines.

This report, which was initially launched in the third quarter of 2017, is comprised of data on freight shipping volumes and spend on both a national and regional basis. The report’s data is based on the actual transaction payment date, highest-volume domestic freight modes of truckload and less-than-truckload and is seasonally- and calendar-adjusted. Its historical data goes back to 2010, with a base point of 100, and its index point for each subsequent quarter marks that quarter’s volume in relation to the preceding quarter. U.S. Bank Freight Payment's business processes more than $43 billion in annual freight payments for some of the world’s largest corporations and government agencies.

The report’s second quarter shipment index value, at 77.2, increased 2.4% compared to the first quarter, snapping a stretch of 11 consecutive sequential declines, while falling 9.8% annually. While shipments again were down annually, it fared better than annual declines of 13.8% and 15.8%, for the first quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter 2024, respectively, and represents the best annual reading, going back to the third quarter of 2023.  

And on a regional basis, shipments saw: matching 1.3% sequential and annual gains in the Western U.S.; a 6.7% sequential gain and a 26.0% annual decline in the Southeast; a 2.6% sequential gain and a 9.2% annual decline in the Midwest (the region’s largest sequential gain in three years); 3.3% and 2.7% sequential and annual, respective, gains in the Northeast (which paced all regions in annual shipment and spending growth, led by gains in housing starts and auto sales); and a 0.1% sequential increase and a 10.8% annual decline in the Southeast, with shipments in this region up for second time since the third quarter 2021.

As for spending, the second quarter spend index value, at 179.9, was up 1.2% sequentially and down 4.9% annually.

Spend data was again mixed on a regional basis, including: West, down 0.7% sequentially, and up 2.3% annually; Southwest, down 3.6% sequentially, and up 3.6% annually; Midwest, up 2.2% sequentially, and down 7.9% annually; Northeast, up 1.3% sequentially, and up 2.7% annually; and Southeast, up 3.8% sequentially, and down 12.9% annually.   

“While the national year-over-year metrics remain down, the second quarter’s sequential growth in both shipments and spending are a welcome shift after years of contraction [with both readings posting sequential shipment and spend increases for the first time since the second quarter 2022],” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “However, with all of the tariff-related volatility potentially impacting trucking activity, it is too soon to say if the market has turned the corner.”

The report’s author, American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, wrote that economic activity was very mixed in the second quarter, especially for those that impact truck freight.

“For example, manufacturing activity in the five regions was mixed, and nationally was up just slightly, compared with the first quarter,” he wrote. “Consumer spending was up, but only slightly from the first three months of the year. Housing activity metrics were erratic, but generally down over the same period. Port volumes, both U.S. land ports of entry and seaports, were also uneven during the second quarter. Based on all of these factors, shipments increased. However, it is likely that shipments and spend were up because capacity tightened in the quarter. Some fleets exited the industry, while many existing carriers have been working on right-sizing their fleets to bring capacity in line with demand.

As shippers deal with carrier failures and exits, they move their freight to other fleets. As a result, carriers that remained in the market likely saw some improvement in freight levels. This was less because freight surged, but more because there was less capacity to meet that demand. While it is too early to say the freight market has definitively turned the corner, the second quarter of 2025 was a very good step in the right direction.”