U.S. Bank Freight Index shows ongoing weakness as Q1 2025 volume, spend continue to decline

The first quarter 2025 edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which was released today, showed sequential declines in freight volume and spending, to varying degrees.  

This report, which was initially launched in the third quarter of 2017, is comprised of data on freight shipping volumes and spend on both a national and regional basis. The report’s data is based on the actual transaction payment date, highest-volume domestic freight modes of truckload and less-than-truckload and is seasonally- and calendar-adjusted. Its historical data goes back to 2010, with a base point of 100, and its index point for each subsequent quarter marks that quarter’s volume in relation to the preceding quarter. U.S. Bank Freight Payment's business processed $46 billion in 2022 for some of the world’s largest corporations and government agencies.

The report’s first quarter shipment index value, at 75.4, fell 5.8% compared to the fourth quarter 2024, its 11^th consecutive sequential decrease, and was off 13.8% annually. The annual decline was better than the 15.8% annual decline seen in the fourth quarter 2024 and represents the best annual reading going back to the fourth quarter 2023.

On a regional basis, shipment and spending data was largely down, both sequentially and annually, including: West up 1.5% annually and up 1.0% sequentially; Midwest, down 6.9% sequentially and down 13.9% annually; Northeast up 3.6% sequentially and up 2.1% annually; Southwest was down 21.2% sequentially and down 40.1% annually; and Southeast was down 1.7% sequentially and down 9.3% annually.

First quarter freight spend, at 177.8, fell 2.5% compared to the fourth quarter and was down 8.6% annually.

Spend data was mixed on a regional basis, including: West, down 1.4% sequentially, and up 0.6% annually; Southwest, up 7.3% sequentially, and up 6.0% annually; Midwest, down 5.5% sequentially, and down 15.3% annually; Northeast, up 4.1% sequentially, and up 2.3% annually; and Southeast, down 7.0% sequentially, and down 16.9% annually.

“While there is tremendous focus on the nationwide freight statistics, detailed regional data is very useful, particularly during times of uncertainty like today—for shippers and carriers to incorporate into their planning, said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business, analytics. “Carriers in the Midwest, and Southeast experienced declines in volume and revenue. At the same time, the Northeast, experienced some of its biggest volume and spend increases in recent years.”

The report’s author, American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, wrote that over the course of the first quarter, a trend impacting freight levels was accelerated imports and also domestic product manufacturing trying to get ahead of expected tariffs levied on U.S. imports. And he added that not all shippers or importers accelerated imports, while many did, with some importers also increasing production to try and beat retaliatory tariffs.

“Consumer activity was also mixed in the first quarter,” wrote Costello. “There are signs that households accelerated big purchases, like new cars or light trucks, ahead of any tariffs, but that was unlikely to result in a significant increase in freight shipments, as those vehicles were mainly taken from existing inventories. From a national perspective, other data showed retail sales slowly, creating a headwind for truck freight. In fact, inflation adjusted retail sales were up very little in January and February of 2025.”