May shipments and expenditures’ readings are mixed, states Cass Freight Index

Freight shipments and expenditures readings were mixed in May, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The May shipments reading, at 1.054, fell 4.0% annually and was down 0.4% compared to April. May shipments decreased 3.4% on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, from April to May, and were down 9.6% on a two-year stacked change basis.  

“The trade war is having a variety of effects, with pre-tariff consumer spending still supporting freight demand,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report. “The negative consequences of tariff effects are partly reflected in May data, as pre-tariff inventory stocking has started to turn to destocking, and those stocks will start to thin in the coming months. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. So far, it is trending toward another decline in 2025. In June, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 2% [annually] on the normal seasonal pattern.”

May expenditures, at 3.313, increased 0.8% annually and were up 1.4% compared to April. Expenditures increased 1.2% on a month-to-month SA basis and were down 8.3% on a two-year stacked change basis.  

The [annual] gain slowed to 0.8% from 1.2% in April, but held onto a second straight increase after more than two years of declines, said Denoyer. “The [annual] increase in spending was more than explained by higher rates, as shipments fell 4.0%. We infer that rates—or more specifically, the average cost of a shipment—rose 5.0% [annually] in May. One factor in this equation is a higher TL mix and lower LTL mix.”