BlueGrace’s Q2 2025 Logistics Confidence Index reflects rising confidence in revenue and order growth amid economic uncertainty

The new edition of the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index, for the second quarter of 2025, which was recently issued by Tampa, Fla.-based, non-asset-based 3PL BlueGrace Logistics, signaled positive momentum for both order volume expectations and revenue expectations, for the second quarter.

BlueGrace describes this report as an important tool for measuring expected expansion or contraction within the logistics sector. It adds that by analyzing revenue forecasts, inventory levels, and order volumes, the index provides industry stakeholders with valuable insights into what to expect in the next quarter and how these trends reflect the freight market.

Data for the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index is aggregated through a survey of shippers and reflects all freight transportation modes, while correlating growth or shrinkage to the overall industry volume of shipments and the price of products, according to BlueGrace.

Looking at revenue expectations, the report found that 74% of respondents forecasted positive revenue growth, topping the first quarter of 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2024, at 68% and 66%, respectively. And it added that 12% of respondents are neutral, down from 23% in the first quarter, with 14% negative, up from 9% in the first quarter.

The company explained that the Q2 data indicates rising optimism, as evidenced by the positive sentiment number, whereas the decline for neutral sentiment is viewed as a more polarized outlook.

BlueGrace SVP of Managed Services Jason Lockard said that the 5.9% increase in positive revenue expectations was driven by stronger confidence in order volumes, stabilizing freight rates, and improved efficiency in logistics operations.

“While order growth sentiment has moderated slightly, revenue per order is increasing, suggesting higher-value shipments and improved margins,” he said. “Additionally, capacity availability has improved, allowing businesses to secure reliable freight options without the extreme cost fluctuations seen in previous quarters. This combination of factors has bolstered revenue expectations despite ongoing economic uncertainties.”

As for inventory levels, BlueGrace described the Q2 findings as showing a stable but cautious outlook, with positive sentiment up 3.3%, to 42%, from Q1 to Q2, with neutral sentiment down 3.6%, to 44%, and negative sentiment essentially flat, rising 0.3%, from 13% to 14%.

The report observed that the market remains slightly less optimistic but remains in a holding pattern on inventory levels. When asked if given the current level of uncertainty in the supply chain, an inventory holding pattern, of sorts, is expected to remain intact in the coming quarters, Lockard said that it is likely that the holding pattern in inventory levels will persist in the short term until there is greater clarity on demand fluctuations and broader economic conditions.

“Many businesses are taking a balanced approach—avoiding excessive stockpiling while ensuring they can meet potential surges in demand,” he said. “Given ongoing concerns about freight costs, supplier reliability, and consumer demand volatility, companies are hesitant to make major shifts in inventory strategy. However, should economic indicators stabilize, we may see businesses gradually adjust their inventory positions in the coming quarters.”

As for how shifts in inventories can impact orders, the report noted that positive sentiment was down 1.9%, to 38%, from Q1 to Q2, with neutral sentiment flat, at 52%, and negative sentiment up 1.3%, to 9%.

Amid these mixed shifts, the report pointed out that the median impact on orders is still flat—at 0.0%, which it said suggests a cautious market stance, with businesses navigating uncertain demand trends, balancing tempered optimism with growing but still limited concerns.

A cautious stance on order volumes is expected to continue in the near term as businesses navigate demand uncertainty, shifting consumer behaviors, and economic headwinds, according to Lockard.

“While the order index remains strong at 95, indicating general confidence in demand, the pace of order growth is slowing,” he said. “This suggests that while companies expect orders to remain stable, they are not overly aggressive in forecasting expansion. As economic conditions evolve, businesses will likely maintain flexibility in their order strategies, ensuring they can respond to changes without overextending resources.”

The report’s Q2 revenue index, at 72, was up 31.9%, from Q1 to Q2, with the inventory index down 8.4%, from 82 to 73, and the orders index rose 36.5%, from 59 to 95.

BlueGrace said that the reduced variance across these indices indicates stabilization, with businesses aligning on revenue and order expectations while maintaining a measured approach to inventory amid evolving market conditions.