Retail Supply Chain

Peak season used to feel like a mad dash, but DHL says the holidays don’t bring the same sense of chaos they once did. Thanks to years of planning, better forecasting, and rapid growth in robotics, the company is heading into the busiest stretch of the year with confidence instead of panic.

For 2025, NRF said it is calling for total holiday season spending to come increase between 3.7%-to-4.2% annually, coming in between $1.01 trillion-to-$1.02 trillion. In 2024, holiday sales saw a 4.3% annual gain, to $976.1 billion.

Accenture’s latest holiday survey finds 70% of retail executives are worried they won’t have enough stock to meet demand.

Wells Fargo’s 2025 Supply Chain Report reveals a sector adapting to tariffs, shifting inventory strategies, and transportation complexity.

July retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences but not price changes, came in at $726.3 billion, up 0.5% over June’s revised $722.6 billion. And total retail sales, from May through July, posted a 3.9% annual gain compared to the same period a year ago.

June retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences but not price changes, came in at $720.1 billion, up 0.6% over May’s $715.5 billion and up 3.9% annually. And total retail sales, from April through June, posted a 4.1% annual gain compared to the same period a year ago.

Commerce reported that April retail sales, at $724.1 billion, were up 0.1% compared to March and up 5.2% annually. NRF reported that April’s retail sales which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, fell 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from March to April, and rose 5.1% annually, on an unadjusted basis.

Commerce reported that March retail sales, at $734.9 billion, increased 1.4% over February and 4.6% annually. NRF reported that March’s retail sales which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, increased 0.6% seasonally-adjusted, from February to March, and were up 5.07% on an unadjusted basis annually.

Commerce reported that January retail sales, at $723.9 billion, fell 0.9% annually, while posting a 4.2% annual gain, and NRF NRF reported that January’s retail sales, which are based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, decreased 0.9% compared to November on a seasonally-adjusted basis and were up 4% annually on an unadjusted basis, with core sales up 4.1% annually on a three-month moving average.

Commerce reported that total October retail sales, at $718.9 billion, were up 0.4%, from September to October, and increased 2.8% annually. NRF reported that October’s core retail sales, which are based on Census and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, were flat sequentially on a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis and up 5.4% annually on unadjusted basis.

Commerce reported that total September retail sales, at $714.4 billion, rose 0.4% compared to August and were up 1.7% annually. NRF reported that its calculation of September retail sales, which is based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, saw retail sales rise 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-over-month, topping August’s 0.1% increase, and were up 1.7% on an unadjusted basis annually.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization is calling for 2024 holiday spending to increase between 2.5%-to-3.5% annually, coming in between $979.5 billion-to-$989 million, topping 2023’s $955.6 billion tally.

Commerce reported that total August retail sales, at $710.8 billion, increased 0.1% compared to July, while posting a 2.1% annual gain. NRF reported that its calculation of August retail sales, which is based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, saw retail sales rise 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-over-month and were up 3.3% on an unadjusted basis annually.

The growth is driven by globalization, technological advancements, and efficient logistics solutions.

NRF is pegging 2024 retail sales to increase between 2.5%-to-3.5% to between $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion. Should this forecast come to fruition, NRF said that it would top 2023 retail sales, which rose 3.6% to $5.1 trillion.