Retail Sales

For 2025, NRF said it is calling for total holiday season spending to come increase between 3.7%-to-4.2% annually, coming in between $1.01 trillion-to-$1.02 trillion. In 2024, holiday sales saw a 4.3% annual gain, to $976.1 billion.

Wells Fargo’s 2025 Supply Chain Report reveals a sector adapting to tariffs, shifting inventory strategies, and transportation complexity.

July retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences but not price changes, came in at $726.3 billion, up 0.5% over June’s revised $722.6 billion. And total retail sales, from May through July, posted a 3.9% annual gain compared to the same period a year ago.

June retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences but not price changes, came in at $720.1 billion, up 0.6% over May’s $715.5 billion and up 3.9% annually. And total retail sales, from April through June, posted a 4.1% annual gain compared to the same period a year ago.

Commerce reported that May retail sales, at $715.4 billion, fell 0.9% compared to April and rose 3.3% annually. NRF reported that monthly core retail sales, which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, increased 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from April to May, and rose 3.9% on an unadjusted basis annually.

Commerce reported that April retail sales, at $724.1 billion, were up 0.1% compared to March and up 5.2% annually. NRF reported that April’s retail sales which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, fell 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from March to April, and rose 5.1% annually, on an unadjusted basis.

Commerce reported that March retail sales, at $734.9 billion, increased 1.4% over February and 4.6% annually. NRF reported that March’s retail sales which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, increased 0.6% seasonally-adjusted, from February to March, and were up 5.07% on an unadjusted basis annually.

NRF said that retail sales are expected to see annual growth between 2.7%-to-3.7%, coming in between $5.42 trillion-to-$5.48 trillion. In its 2024, forecast, the organization called for a 3.6% annual increase, at $5.29 trillion, and it added that the 2025 forecast matches up with its 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth rate, at 3.6%.

Commerce reported that February retail sales, at $722.7 billion, rose 0.2% over January and were up 3.1% annually. From December through February, it reported that retail sales increased 3.8% compared to the same period a year ago.

We are not in an economic “doom and gloom” scenario, but, at the same time, there is uncertainty, coupled with a number of issues that have the potential to impact all things related to goods movement. Many of these things were highlighted in the recent edition of the “Monthly Economic Review,” which was recently released by the Washington, D.C.-based National Retail Federation (NRF).  

Commerce reported that January retail sales, at $723.9 billion, fell 0.9% annually, while posting a 4.2% annual gain, and NRF NRF reported that January’s retail sales, which are based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, decreased 0.9% compared to November on a seasonally-adjusted basis and were up 4% annually on an unadjusted basis, with core sales up 4.1% annually on a three-month moving average.

Commerce reported that total November retail sales, at $724.6 billion, were up 0.7%, from October to November, and increased 3.8% annually. NRF reported that November’s core retail sales, which are based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, rose 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from October to November, and were up 3.8% annually on an unadjusted basis.  

Commerce reported that total October retail sales, at $718.9 billion, were up 0.4%, from September to October, and increased 2.8% annually. NRF reported that October’s core retail sales, which are based on Census and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, were flat sequentially on a seasonally-adjusted month-over-month basis and up 5.4% annually on unadjusted basis.

Commerce reported that total September retail sales, at $714.4 billion, rose 0.4% compared to August and were up 1.7% annually. NRF reported that its calculation of September retail sales, which is based on Census data and excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, saw retail sales rise 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-over-month, topping August’s 0.1% increase, and were up 1.7% on an unadjusted basis annually.

The Washington, D.C.-based organization is calling for 2024 holiday spending to increase between 2.5%-to-3.5% annually, coming in between $979.5 billion-to-$989 million, topping 2023’s $955.6 billion tally.