FTR Shippers Conditions Index shows sequential improvement

While showing some improvement, the new edition of the Shippers Conditions Index, which was recently issued by freight transportation consultancy FTR, remained in negative territory.

FTR describes the SCI as an indicator that sums up all market influences that affect the transport environment for shippers, with a reading above zero being favorable and a reading below being unfavorable and a “less-than-ideal environment for shippers.”

For July, the most recent month for which data is available, the SCI came in at -2.0, an improvement over June’s -2.6 reading, with May, April, and March at -0.9, -0.6, and -0.1, respectively. That was preceded by -0.3 February reading. The January SCI was 0.6 and was preceded by October’s 1.3 reading, that fell from September’s 4.6 reading. The August SCI was 2.9, with July at 0.5; June at 0.3; May at 4.5, and June at 3.0—which was preceded by several months of declines.

The firm explained that while fuel costs continued to represent a headwind in July, freight dynamics were more favorable for shippers, with rates the most favorable going back to October 2024. And it added that the SCI outlook has weakened somewhat for now while looking to be close to neutral through the majority of 2026, with the caveat that a more negative outlook may be on route because of regulatory and enforcement changes.

“As of today, we forecast very mildly unfavorable market conditions for shippers over the next couple of years, but trucking capacity is poised to tighten significantly,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “A preliminary revision of payroll jobs data in trucking already implies a tighter supply of drivers than previously indicated, but the big development is the just-announced crackdown on foreign nationals holding commercial driver’s licenses along with the ongoing scrutiny over English language skills. Record insurance premium costs add to the pressure. Also, the new 25% tariff on heavy trucks could further reduce trucking companies’ ability to grow whenever freight demand warrants. A weak freight market might keep these pressures at bay for a while, but shippers could face a much hotter market once volume recovers.”