Pricing

Top trucking industry executives are hoping 2026 will—finally—be the year when pent-up demand translates into higher freight rates and a return to profitability in both the truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors.

In a wide-ranging presentation at the RailTrends conference in New York last week, Adriene Bailey, partner and head of the North American Rail Team at Oliver Wyman, offered up detailed insight and analysis on various topics impacting the North American freight railroad market.

First quarter revenue growth expectations were described as steady in the report, with an average forecast of 2%, while positive revenue sentiment hit 72%, its highest level since the second quarter 2025, following a 69% projection, for the fourth quarter, in the report’s previous edition.

Quarterly consolidated revenue, at $21.4 billion, fell 3.7% annually, and basic earnings per share, at $1.74 (topped Wall Street estimates of $1.29), fell $0.24, or 13.4%, annually. Total operating profit, at $1.8 billion, was off 9.1% annually. 

Q3 Freight Index: Carriers Fight Margin Pressure as Industry Faces Longest Downcycle in Years AFS and TD Cowen highlight freight market complexity, with historical models and economic shifts shaping short-term forecasts.

Following August spot truckload volume and rate declines, September readings were more mixed, while conditions largely remained the same, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which was released today by DAT Freight and Analytics.

For July, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading came in at -1.03, faring better than June’s -1.83 reading, the lowest in 2025, with the firm noting that the TCI improved despite all freight-related factors coming in lower than in June.

The company stated that FedEx package standard list rates for U.S., U.S. export, and U.S. import services will increase by an average of 5.9%. And it said that rates for FedEx Ground Economy, FedEx Ground Multiweight, FedEx International Premium, and FedEx International Priority Direct Distribution will also head up.

Wells Fargo’s 2025 Supply Chain Report reveals a sector adapting to tariffs, shifting inventory strategies, and transportation complexity.

The report observed that truckload (TL) activity accounted for 72% of second quarter broker activity, followed by Miscellaneous (which includes ocean, air, warehousing, and special services), at 14%, less-than-truckload (LTL), at 11%, and intermodal, at 3%.

UPS has announced its 2025 peak demand surcharges, adding new costs for businesses shipping during the holiday rush. The surcharges will take effect September 28 and run through January 17, covering the busiest stretch of the year for e-commerce and retail deliveries.

Effective today, August 29, the de minimis exemption, which allows shipments under $800 sent to the United States to not be subject to tariffs, officially will be removed. That was the edict delivered in a White House executive order in late July.

Logistics Management Group News Editor Jeff Berman recently caught up with Doug Waggoner, CEO of Chicago-based 3PL Echo Global Logistics. Waggoner offered up insights on various logistics and supply chain trends and themes, including: freight economic conditions, capacity and rates, M&A, technology, and cross-border logistics, among others.

USPS said that the objective of temporary price adjustment, “is to help cover extra handling costs to ensure a successful peak season.”

Carriers and brokers remain optimistic despite revenue declines and tariff pressures, truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence reports.