U.S.-bound September imports see annual decline, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports fell annually in September, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The firm reported that September imports, at 2.72 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units),  fell 5.8% annually, down from August’s 2.9 million TEU July’s 3.01 million TEU (which topped the 3 million TEU mark for the first time and came on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7).

On a year-to-date basis, imports increased 3.2%, to 24.8 million TEU. The firm also noted that, for the fourth quarter, it estimates U.S.-bound containerized freight imports to decline by 14.4% annually, following a 0.6% third quarter annual gain, with the import downturn expected to continue through the third quarter of 2026—with the fastest rate of decline expected to be for imports Asia—with imports from mainland China pegged to fall 23.2% and imports from the EU pegged to rise 0.4%, due in part to a trade deal reached with the U.S. for a flat 15% tariff rate, followed by a decline early next year, when the pre-tariff front loading period from the same timeframe for the previous year is lapped.

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported the following for September imports:

• capital goods imports fell 25.7% annually, with electrical components down 37.0%, reflecting continuing weak manufacturing activity, said the firm;
• consumer staples were off 6.2% annually, with home and personal care imports down 15.8% and pharmaceuticals rose 7.1%; and
• consumer discretionary products, excluding auto parts, were down 6.4%, with consumer electronics and leisure products down 18.8% and 25.7%, respectively, which the firm said likely reflects and earlier-than-normal end to peak season

In assessing these numbers, S&P Global Market Intelligence Chris Rogers observed in a research note that September’s downturn reflects the reversal of a tariff-related increase in shipments related to front-loading strategies by shippers earlier in the year, with many shippers now having completed that and have subsequently focused on price and cost negotiation-related tactics for 2026.

In an interview with LM, Rogers noted that given all of the shifts in trade policy and tariffs over the course of 2025, that, in a sense, the market has been waiting for a downturn to begin, in earnest, as May and June were down, followed by gains in July and August, and a nearly 6% September decline, with the expectation that 2025 will come in under 3% annually.

One reason he attributed for that was the decline in capital goods, which he called widespread.

“The capital goods sector has been down in decline since May and weaker than the total amount of imports,” he said. “It is one of those paradoxes of investment in America, at the moment, in which the overall investment numbers look good but it is because of all these [AI] data centers being built. When you look at [investment] in actual factories, the builds have been much lower, and that has had an impact of on the data, because nobody knows what their plans are. Intuitively, you would expect firms to start maybe building new factories in America because tariffs are here for a long time and you are going to start that investment. But in talking to our customers, when we look at the data, it is more of a middle of next year story, at the earliest.”  

Looking at other sectors, Rogers explained that metals and forestry declines were not unexpected, due to tariffs coming into play for both sectors, whereas chemicals saw gains, coupled with a degree of reshoring in the chemical sector, as well as retail sales for goods with plastic have been reasonably robust. The declines for consumer electronics and leisure goods, with the latter including toys, saw high rates of declines, at 19% and 26%, respectively, reflects what Rogers called a byproduct of the aforementioned earlier-in-the-year frontloading efforts.

“When we look back at 2025 to date, I think we all got very concerned about tariffs early on, and what's happened is the implementation has taken longer than expected,” he said. “Where we are ending up is worse than people were expecting, but it's taking longer than expected to get there, which is why it's taken so long for the container stats to turn over. But now that they are turning over, we'll end up where we expect it to be. It's just taken a couple quarters longer. You have to wonder whether, for next year, if the risks are very much on the downside. The number I like to throw about is that aggregate cost of tariffs in a full year is $640 billion, and the average tariff increase, if you take everything together, will be 20%. We've only seen the average tariff rate, based U.S. Treasury tariff stats, currently only running at about 11% and that's because not everything has kicked in yet. It will end up around 18% and eventually 20%, when the Section 232 reviews are done.”