Port Tracker report expects U.S.-bound imports to dip in the coming months

While President Trump earlier today reversed course on widespread tariffs recently announced on United States trading partners, in the form of a 90-day pause through July 9, with the notable exception of China, the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, expects U.S.-bound imports to recede in the coming months.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

“Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are taxes on U.S importers ultimately paid by consumers. They are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other. At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”

For February, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 2.14 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 7.5% decrease compared to January and a 5.2% annual increase, representing the busiest February—a month typically negatively impacted by the timing of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in China—in three years.

Port Tracker issued projections for March and the subsequent months, including:

• March, at 2.14 million TEU, for an 11.1% annual increase;
• April, at 2.08 million TEU, for a 3.1% annual increase;
• May, at 1.66 million TEU, for a 20.5% annual decrease, which would snap a 19-month stretch of annual growth;
• June, at 2.07 million TEU, for a 3.2% annual decrease; and
• July, at 1.99 million TEU, for a 13.9% annual decrease

The report is calling for the first half of 2025 to be down 2.9% annually, to 11.73 million TEU, compared to a previous estimate made before the White House’s April 2 tariff announcement, calling for a 5.7% annual gain, to 12.78 million TEU.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”