White House issues another 90-day pause for tariffs on Chinese imports to the U.S.

Following a 90-day pause rolled out in May, which was set to expire today, the White House said yesterday, in an Executive Order, that tariffs on United States-bound imports from China will remain at current levels for another 90 days, through November 10.

“I have just signed an Executive Order that will extend the Tariff Suspension on China for another 90 days,” President Trump said in a social media post. “All other elements of the Agreement will remain the same.”

In May, the United States came to initial terms on a temporary agreement, while meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. Under the terms of the agreement, the U.S. and China said in a joint statement that, effective May 14, U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports would drop from 145% to 30%, while China would cut its own tariffs on American goods from 125% to 10%. President Trump’s 20% fentanyl-related tariff will stay in place, but most of the broader trade war measures will be temporarily relaxed.

Prior to the May agreement, the U.S. had 145% tariffs on goods manufactured in China headed to the United States, while China had 125% tariffs on goods manufactured in the U.S. headed to China. These very high tariff levels were the result of retaliatory back-and-forth actions between the countries on various fronts, which had seen tariffs rise significantly since President Trump re-entered the White House in January. Drivers for the tariff measures previously cited by the White House include addressing U.S. trade imbalances, pushing for increased domestic manufacturing, and stemming the flow of fentanyl.

What’s more, since the respective 145% tariffs on Chinese goods and the 125% tariffs on U.S. goods had been in place, going back to April, the subsequent economic impacts were apparent, with first quarter U.S. GDP falling to 0.3%, for its first decline, going back to the early days of the pandemic in 2020, and paced by a flurry of U.S.-bound import activity in advance of the expiration of the U.S. 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, which was originally set to expire on July 9 but was pushed back to August 7. As for China, it has seen declining factory activity, coupled with a sharp decline in its exports shipped to the U.S.

While the additional 90-day extension of the pause on U.S. tariffs on imports from mainland China was not a surprise, the path for the discussions between the two countries is not clear, although the patterns of recently-negotiated frameworks and deals between the U.S. and with other countries may indicate the types of outcomes acceptable to the U.S., according to Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting, for S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“Even with the pause, the effective tariff levels in place remain high relative to 2024 levels,” said Bingham. “Reaching an agreement may be more complicated than with most other U.S. trade partner countries as the importance attached to the additional dimensions to the trade discussions, such as mainland China’s importance in allowing exports of rare earth elements, the trade in semiconductor chips, and potential for the U.S. to seek commitments for purchases of U.S. exports by mainland China may prevent a set of tariff rates being finalized within this next 90 day period.

At least for U.S. importers, the pause in reverting to the higher U.S. import tariffs on goods from mainland China will allow importers to better manage the restocking of imported goods in inventory for most of the rest of 2025.  A shorter pause might have put more pressure on importers, and resulted in a spike back up for shipping rates, now less likely with this 90 day pause.”

While tariffs between the countries are not at the previous elevated levels, the impact of tariffs on global trade has been apparent in various ways.

On last month’s second quarter earnings call, UPS CEO Carol Tomé explained, in addressing the business climate abroad, that U.S. trade policy and tariffs are not good for trade.

“With the announcement of certain changes to trade policies in the second quarter, we saw that play out,” she said. “For example, looking at our China to U.S. trade lane, an increased tariff and the elimination of de minimis exceptions resulted in a year-over-year drop in average daily volume of 34.8% for the month of May and June. Our China-to-U.S. trade lane is our most profitable trade lane and the volume decline here pressured our international operating margin. But it’s important to remember that with policy changes, trade doesn’t stop, it moves. Given our global integrated network, we are well positioned to service these moves. As an example, in the second quarter, we saw volume in our China to the rest of the world trade lanes increased by 22.4% and we nearly doubled our capacity between India and Europe to meet the growing export demand on that trade lane.”

From an air cargo perspective, data from aviation specialist investment bankers Cassel Salpeter observed that air cargo volume between China and the U.S. have fallen 60% since reciprocal tariffs went into effect—which it said has forced a reshaping of global trade routes. It also noted that tariffs are impacting e-commerce bookings, as evidenced by a roughly 50% decline in May.

“The elimination of the $800 de minimis exception for imported goods, combined with increased tariffs, is expected to send air cargo volumes plummeting for low-value e-commerce shipments: a major component of China-U.S. airfreight traffic,” the firm said. “With de minimis exemptions unlikely to return, Chinese e-commerce leaders like Alibaba, Shein, and Temu now send products into the U.S. via bulk sea freight shipments to U.S.-based warehouses and distribution centers, abandoning their use of individual air shipments for direct-to-consumer fulfilment that previously drove cargo aviation growth. There is new reallocation of aircraft from the China-U.S. market to European and other regional routes as cargo airlines reconsider fleet deployment strategies and network planning in response to tariff-induced trade flow changes.”

And the firm cited data from the International Air Traffic Association (IATA), with IATA lowering its 2025 guidance for air cargo demand from 5.8% growth, which was issued in December, to near zero growth, as well as data from Cirrus Global Advisors, an air cargo and e-commerce consultancy, indicating that the daily number of trans-Pacific.

On the water, import volume declines are also in the cards. The recent Port Tracker report, issued by the National Retail Federation and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, said that with the White House’s widespread reciprocal tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners now in effect, the report said it expects total 2025 import cargo volume for the ports cited in the report to be 5.6% lower annually.

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”