Inventories

The possibility of the economy entering a recession, at this point, appears to not be a matter of if it occurs, but when will it occur. That was a key theme in a session this week at the SMC3 JumpStart 2023 conference held in Atlanta.

Total November U.S.-bound containerized freight imports—at 2,854,305 TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units)—were down 4.7% compared to October’s record 2,995,176 TEU and up 6.3% annually. And through the first 11 months of 2021, imports are up 19.6% annually, to 31,699,365 TEU. November shipments—at 1,333,314—were down 5.8% compared to October’s 1,415,250 and up 13.6% annually. Through the first 11 months of 2021, shipments are up 20.8%, to 14,129,936.

In its monthly Manufacturing Report on Business, ISM said that the report’s key metric, the PMI, was 61.1 (a reading of 50 or higher indicates growth), up 0.3% compared to October’s 60.8 reading. This represented the 18th consecutive month of growth, at a faster rate, coupled with November also representing the 18th consecutive month of growth for the overall economy.

Usually inventory-to-sales ratios are one of myriad geeky numbers released monthly that only other statisticians—and historians—follow with any regularity. However, as anyone connected with the current whacky freight environment can attest, these are not normal times.

While it was not a huge surprise that 2019 was unable to maintain the economic and freight volume momentum seen in 2018, the outlook for 2020 is shaping up to be closer to the former. That was the word from speakers at this week’s SMC3 JumpStart 2020 conference in Atlanta.