U.S.-bound imports are expected to decline, with reciprocal tariffs now in place

The ongoing impact of tariffs on the supply chain and United States-bound import cargo volume was evident in the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

With the White House’s widespread reciprocal tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners taking effect on August 7, the report said it expects total 2025 import cargo volume for the ports cited in the report to be 5.6% lower annually.

“While this forecast is still preliminary, it shows the impact the tariffs and the administration’s trade policy are having on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Tariffs are beginning to drive up consumer prices, and fewer imports will eventually mean fewer goods on store shelves. Small businesses especially are grappling with the ability to stay in business. We need binding trade agreements that open markets by lowering tariffs, not raising them. Tariffs are taxes paid by U.S. importers that will result in higher prices for U.S. consumers, less hiring, lower business investment and a slower economy.”

For June, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 1.96 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 0.7% sequential gain and an 8.4% annual decrease.

Port Tracker issued projections for July and the subsequent months, including:

• July, at 2.3 million TEU, down 0.5% annually and the highest monthly tally in a year;
• August, at 2.2 million TEU, for a 5% annual decrease;
• September, at 1.83 million TEU, for a 19.5% annual decrease;
• October, at 1.82 million TEU, an 18.9% annual decline;
• November, at 1.71 million TEU, down 21.1% annually and the lowest-volume month since April 2023’s 1.78 million TEU; and
• December, at 1.72 million TEU, for a 19.3% annual decline

The report explained that the projected cargo declines from September through August are due to the pulling forward of cargo over the first half of 2025, related to tariffs and the large percentage declines from elevated imports in late 2024 over concerns about potential East and Gulf Coast port strikes at the time.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett did not pull any punches in assessing the current state of global trade, noting that the, hither-and-thither approach of on-again, off-again tariffs that have little to do with trade policy is causing confusion and uncertainty for importers, exporter, and consumers.

“Imposed without any clear relation to traditional trade or economic strategy, these tariffs seem to be aimed mostly at generating steady income for the U.S. Treasury without regard to the cost implications for the economy and the U.S businesses and consumers who pay them,” wrote Hackett. “Friends, allies and foes are all being hit by distortions in trade flows as importers try to second-guess tariff levels by pulling forward imports before the tariffs take effect. This, in turn, will certainly lead to a downturn in trade volumes by late September because inventories for the holiday season will already be in hand. Meanwhile, U.S. exporters are being left with unsold products as counter tariffs are applied.”