Trucking awaits normalcy return amid tariff uncertainty weighing on demand

Fewer trucks chasing even less freight. That’s the mid-year summary of the $994 billion domestic trucking market.

Preliminary net orders for North American Class 8 trucks/tractors in July posted their seventh consecutive year-over-year decrease. Orders fell 7% compared to the same month in 2024 despite a 42% rise over last month, according to research firm FTR.

The 12,700 orders in July were well below July's 10-year average of 19,974 units. Those dipping Class 8 orders were evidence of ongoing caution among fleet executives amid trade tensions, fluctuating tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty impacting freight demand.

“Ongoing tariff volatility and broader economic and truck freight market sluggishness continue to negatively impact the Class 8 market, driving a substantial 30% y/y decline in year-to-date net orders,” Dan Moyer, FTR’s senior analyst for commercial vehicles, said in a statement.

Class 8 market uncertainty is further elevated due to the potential imposition of Section 232 tariffs specifically targeting Class 4-through-8 trucks, tractors, and related components, Moyer added.

Old Dominion Freight Line President and Chief Executive Officer Marty Freeman, who runs the nation’s second-largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier said its second quarter results “reflect continued softness in the domestic economy” and affected ODFL’s profitability.

“Although our revenue decreased in the quarter due to a decline in our volumes, our yields improved as our best-in-class service continues to support our disciplined approach to pricing,” Freeman said on an earnings call. “Although the challenging economic environment has persisted for longer than we anticipated, we have remained focused on what we can control as we work to ensure Old Dominion continues to deliver superior service to our customers while also operating efficiently,” Freeman added.

Delivering superior service at a fair price to customers is the cornerstone of ODFL’s strategic plan and has been central to its success for many years, Freeman added.

Old Dominion's revenue totaled $1.41 billion for the second quarter, a 6.1% decrease from the prior year. ODFL’s results reflected a 9.3% decrease in LTL tons per day that was partially offset by a 3.4% increase in the LTL revenue per hundredweight.

ODFL operated with 99% on-time performance and a cargo claims ratio of 0.1% in the second quarter, he added.

Freeman said he was “confident” that ODFL’s decision to make “consistent reinvestment” back into its business for growth is the right long-term approach.

“We know that having available capacity to grow with our customers and support them during periods of stronger demand is an important component of our value proposition,” Freeman said. “We also believe that these investments are critical to stay ahead of what we expect to be favorable long-term demand trends for our industry.”

XPO Logistics, which runs the nation’s third-largest North American less-than-truckload carrier. Reduced its purchased transportation cost in the second quarter to $32 million. That’s a 53% reduction compared witha year ago.

Investments in rolling stock in recent years have allowed XPO to cut outsourcing costs in the short term and position the carrier for success once the market improves, company officials said on an earnings call.

When demand recovers in the LTL industry, some industry executives are predicting truckload rates to rise, perhaps as high as 30-40 percent.

At Saia, the nation’s sixth-largest LTL carrier, it reported a second quarter operating ratio of 87.8%, compared to its OR of 83.3% in the second quarter of last year. Still, those results represent a 330 basis point improvement from the first quarter of this year.

“Our efforts to optimize our variable costs and improve our network efficiency contributed to this outperformance,” Saia President and CEO Frederick J. Holzgrefe said on an earnings call.

Holzgrefe described muted volume trends in the LTL market right now. Saia’s customers have “remained cautious amidst an ever-changing economic landscape.”

Still Holzgrefe emphasized success in newer markets, stating, “Terminals opened less than three years saw sequential—about a 4% sequential improvement in shipments for workday in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the first quarter. In aggregate, these facilities operated in the mid-90s in the second quarter, improving from breakeven in the first quarter.”

Saia’s quarterly revenue decreased year-over-year by 0.7% to $817.1 million while revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharge, increased 2.7% to $298.71, compared to $290.72 in the second quarter of 2024.

In another industry note, PAMT, parent of P.A.M. Transport, a prominent TL carrier, promoted Lance Stewart to president, CEO and director of the company.  Stewart has served as VP of accounting and controller, VP of finance, VP of operations and most recently CFO.

Former CEO Joseph Vitiritto resigned effective June 27 due to family reasons.