TIA Q2 report signals potential freight market rebound

The 3PL Market Report-Q2 2025 Market Insights, which was issued this week by the Alexandria, Va.-based Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), pointed to some signs of freight market optimism on a few different fronts.

This report is based on monthly data from more than 50 TIA member companies, focusing on analyzing shifts in broker activity, which it said is largely dominated by the truckload sector. The report was prepared for TIA by Donald Broughton, Managing Partner at Broughton Capital LLC.

The report observed that truckload (TL) activity accounted for 72% of second quarter broker activity, followed by Miscellaneous (which includes ocean, air, warehousing, and special services), at 14%, less-than-truckload (LTL), at 11%, and intermodal, at 3%.

Total quarterly shipments saw a sequential 10.7% increase, to 1.74 million, and were up 7.8% annually. Total revenue was up 5.4% from the first quarter to the second quarter, and saw a 5.2% annual gain. And invoice per shipment fell 4.8% sequentially, to $1,690, and was off 2.4% annually, with gross margin percentage up 20 basis points sequentially and down 80 basis points sequentially.

From a volume perspective, truckload was up 4.0% annually and 5.9% sequentially, LTL was up 8.9% annually and 3.5% sequentially, intermodal was down 3.4% annually and 2.5% sequentially, and Other, including air, ocean, warehousing, and Misc.) was up 36.0% annually and 61.7% sequentially.

“Although too early to definitively prove, Q2 2025 data offer indications that the transportation and freight brokerage industries have reached a turning point and are in the process of establishing volume, pricing, and margin trends that will be far more positive than those of the last two years,” the report stated.

What’s more, it added that with import container volumes showing improvement and are approaching previous peak levels seen in Q2 2022, retail inventories are still lean, adding that TIA expects strengthening retail sales and demand for trucking services to deliver goods to stores “will surprise to the upside in coming months.” To that end, it noted that there is a high correlation between import container volume and spot market dry van load posts, with the second quarter’s TIA member shipment increase not serving as a false positive indication.

In an interview, TIA President & CEO Chris Burroughs told LM that these numbers could serve as a harbinger of the end of an ongoing negative downturn in freight activity, going back at least the last 12 quarters. But he cautioned things are not yet at that point.

“There is a lot going on with tariffs and general uncertainty that are still hampering a full freight recovery, but the numbers are looking good,” he said. “There seems to be more confidence in the market moving forward. There are also some triggers that can certainty continue to increase and lead us towards more recovery in the freight market. I think we are just starting to come out of it, which is extremely important.”

When asked if these signs of positive momentum could accelerate amid Peak Season activity, Burroughs explained that the report’s data signals that could be the case, with the fall holiday rush potentially representing some cautious optimism.

In terms of the possibility of the Supreme Court ruling against the White House IEEPA’s tariffs and set to go through an expedited appeal process, Burroughs said it depends on the on the eventual outcome, as it relates to the impact on the freight market.

“Let’s say everything gets repealed, and things are back to where they were before these tariffs were implemented,” he said. “I think that would bring more confidence from a shipper perspective. In talking with our members, again, the main issue is uncertainty. Things have been vacillating recently, but in the beginning, tariffs were on and off again, which does not help any markets. Shippers do a lot of international business don’t want to run the risk of bringing a product into the U.S. and pay a 20% or 30% tariff and then it [the tariff] gets lifted the next day, leaving their revenues down 20% or 30% and having paid this added extra cost. Or they may keep their powder dry and hold their freight and play a little Russian roulette to see if things get any better.  

If tariffs went away, you would see more optimism in this space, but I think there's got to be a point where we can't continue to live in this uncertainty of what's going to happen, kind of the what if, scenario. So, at some point it's going to have to lead to increased volumes. Business is going to have to continue to pick up. Freight is going to have to continue be going back and forth between countries. There are just so many balls up in the air and that's impacting everybody in the supply chain.”