October U.S.-bound imports fall, with further declines expected in the coming months, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

United States-bound containerized freight imports saw an annual decline in October, according to data issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

October imports, at 2.71 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) fell 3.4% annually, again seeing a sequential decline compared to September’s 2.72 million TEU, August’s 2.9 million TEU, and July’s 3.01 million TEU (which topped the 3 million TEU mark for the first time and came on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7).

On a year-to-date basis through October, imports, at 27.55 million TEU, increased 2.5% annually. The firm previously noted that, for the fourth quarter, it estimates U.S.-bound containerized freight imports to decline by 14.4% annually, following a 0.6% third quarter annual gain, with the import downturn expected to continue through the third quarter of 2026—with the fastest rate of decline expected to be for imports Asia—with imports from mainland China pegged to fall 23.2% and imports from the EU pegged to rise 0.4%, due in part to a trade deal reached with the U.S. for a flat 15% tariff rate, followed by a decline early next year, when the pre-tariff front loading period from the same timeframe for the previous year is lapped.

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported the following for October imports:

• automotive parts increased 5.1%, with the firm noting that behavior may be normalizing after a surge earlier in the year;
• home appliances and furnishings were up 9.9%% annually; and
• consumer electronics and leisure goods saw a 25.0% annual decline, with S&P indicating these imports “appear to have peaked in August,” rather than the more typical September and October timeframe

S&P Global Market Intelligence Research Director Chris Rogers wrote in a research note that a key theme of this data pointed to how U.S. manufacturers and retailers may have over-built inventories, which could lead to what he described as a rapid slowdown in supply chain activity and trade heading into 2026. That was made clear in data he cited from the WarehouseQuote National Pricing Index, which rose 0.5% annually in October, as well as the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for stocks of finished goods hitting its highest mark in October since at least 2007, while purchases have yet to begin to decline.

“Normally this time of year we're we are in the thick of peak shipments and the thick of peak season,” said Rogers. “If anything, it looks like that might have already happened a little bit early. If you look at the Super seasonal stuff, like consumer electronics and leisure goods, they peaked, really, in August and September, rather than in October. It was September last year and October in in previous years. That's kind of the tariff hangover, right there. But I think what's interesting is the peak season has also been flatter. It's one of the reasons why October's only down by about 3% or so annually in the aggregate, is because we've had this kind of flatter season, this less spiky peak season, and a lot of that's been driven by something we've talked about a few times this year, which is around tariffs being implemented later than expected.”

While the majority of U.S. tariffs did not take effect until August, Rogers explained that plenty of unknowns remain intact when it comes to tariffs, especially in areas like consumer electronics, where the actual tariff rate remains to be determined, as well as recently-announced deals with Switzerland and four Central American nations—adding that there will be more of this to come.

In looking at the October overall, Rogers observed how stocks of finished goods rose at the fastest rate on record, since 2007, which he said was surprising, adding that throughout November and into December and into the first quarter, S&P Global Market Intelligence expects that deceleration in trade start to accelerate.

“The first quarter [of 2026] is likely to be a drag, for two reasons,” he said. “First, there are very big inventories coming out of the peak season that need to be worked through,” he said. “Companies have been a lot less promotional, and, so if the sales aren't as good, then customers might stay on the sidelines. The second part is you're comparing to the first quarter of 2025 which was an absolutely stellar quarter, with the first quarter of 2026 likely to see a double-digit slowdown. The uncertainties we are facing are historical, but that does not mean we should be hysterical. We are seeing that the magnitudes of these things that are happening are much bigger than what we have seen in the past. But they are all things we have dealt with in the past.

We had tariffs once before, and supply chains adapted to them. Going into 2026, we're actually quite upbeat about the outlook for trade policy more broadly. We're seeing more of these trade deals being done around the world, not just the kind of the lightweight deals that the Trump administration is doing, but we're seeing Europe look to finalize its deals with the Mercosur region in Latin America, possibly with India. We're seeing the trade deals in Asia become bigger so that's all that's all really constructive. And, so we are starting to see companies talk again about their strategic investments, about their long-term planning, and that's really encouraging. That doesn't change the fact that first quarter is going to be rough year over year.”