Cass Freight Index shows signs of recovery in September

Following declines in August, freight shipments and expenditures were mixed and saw some signs of improvement in September, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $36 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The September shipments reading, at 1.042, was down 5.4% annually, faring better than August’s 9.3% annual decrease, and increased 2.5% over August and up 1.5% on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, from August to September, and were down 10.4% on a two-year stacked change basis, an improvement over the 11.0% decline, for that metric, last month.  

“For the second straight month, truckload volumes rose slightly within the data, but LTL volumes declined,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “We think the LTL declines reflect ongoing available TL capacity—where low rates lead shippers to consolidate LTL loads into truckloads—and private fleet insourcing. The positivity in TL volumes may be temporary, as pre-tariff shipping may lead to more air pockets in demand. Just as we correctly expected tariff reprieves to support a recovery in September volumes, we also expect tariffs to result in volume declines and additional softness as price increases reduce affordability and impact spending.”

Denoyer added that after rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the shipments index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and is currently trending toward what he called “another considerable decline” in 2025. In October, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 6% annually on the normal seasonal pattern, he added.

The September expenditures reading, at 3.296, rose 2.2% annually, better than August’s 0.4% annual decline, and rose 5.1%, from August to September, faring better than a 2.8% slide, from July to August. Expenditures increased 2.5% on a month-to-month SA basis and were down 4.5% on a two-year stacked change basis.  

“The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of lower shipments and higher rates,” noted Denoyer.

In a research note, Jeff Kauffman, Transportation & Logistics analyst, at Vertical Research Partners, observed that the report’s data showed an improvement that was above normal seasonal trends, adding that it is hard to say at this point if it is related to the pre-tariff inventory patterns.

“[T]he overall message should be that freight is acting as it should, but perhaps below the expectations of our carriers,” he wrote. “Despite the chorus of trucking companies talking down the weaker than expected September data based on a late start to the holiday shipping season, it appears that shipments and rates were not all that bad, and a step in a positive direction.  It is hard to say at this point if this was more a reaction to a weak August or a more traditional beginning to the fourth quarter.”

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