Trucking executives are set to anxiously welcome in New Year amid uncertainty regarding freight demand

Top trucking industry executives are hoping 2026 will—finally—be the year when pent-up demand translates into higher freight rates and a return to profitability in both the truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) sectors.

Until that hope actually translates into profits, most trucking leaders say they continue to tighten the variable costs they can control.

“As we navigate through the continuous challenging macro environment, we remain focused on what we can control,” Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) President and CEO Kevin M. (“Marty”) Freeman said on a recent conference call with analysts.

Despite lower tonnage, ODFL posted an eye-popping 74.3 operating ratio in the third quarter, the carrier says it “continues to execute the core elements of our long-term strategic plan” to position Old Dominion as the best positioned carrier in our industry to respond to an inflection in the operating environment when it does materialize.

“As we have said many times before, our long-term strategic plan includes an ongoing focus on delivering superior service at a fair price,” Freeman added.

ODFL CFO Adam Satterfield said over the past couple of years of this freight recession, ODFL has opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022.

“So we definitely have built up some capacity,” Satterfield said. “We do have several service centers that we've completed construction on. When we do that, they're ready to be turned into the operation.”

That’s a far cry from the strategy ODFL once pursued after it made—and later withdrew—a billion-dollar attempt to buy all of Yellow’s approximately 300 terminals in the days immediately after that carrier’s closing in August 2023. ODFL feared a bidding war and wisely stepped aside—and ultimately passed on buying any of the former Yellow terminals.

“So we have several service centers in ready reserve, so to speak,” Satterfield said. “We just think it's more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases line-haul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the costs.”

ODFL said it had 35% excess capacity within its network, up materially from the 10-15% extra capacity it had during peak tightness in the peak year of 2021.

“What we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the upcycle,” Satterfield added. “So I think those are the reasons why we feel like we're better positioned than ever to be able to start showing strong profitable growth.”

Those looking for elusive green shoots—for hopeful signs that freight demand in the New Year will exceed the lackluster levels of the past three years—are feeling they might come in 2026.

“It’s been basic supply and demand,” says Geoff Muessig, chief marketing officer for Pitt Ohio, the nation’s 13^th-largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier. “The supply is ample. Demand has been muted.”

Unlike most industries, interstate trucking cannot easily subtract capacity in the market place. It can idle some trucks (and drivers) periodically to adjust demand. But few fleets can take out, say, 20% of their capacity in a fell swoop. There’s too much brick-and-mortar involved (especially in the terminal-intense LTL world) to increase (or decrease) terminals as demand would require.

Still, some carriers—even those covered by a costly Teamsters union contract—did manage to eliminate head count last year. UPS, the nation’s largest transportation company, quietly eliminated 48,000 jobs—and still posted net earnings in excess of $5 billion last year.

But, instead of headcount, trucking executives reduced available capacity by reducing the number of trucks.

Volvo Group cited new tariffs and weak demand as it lowered its 2025 sales last year in North America to 265,000 trucks — a reduction of 10,000 units from its earlier quarterly forecast.

Volvo President and CEO Martin Lundstedt said the company’s customers are in “wait-and-see mode” due to the high level of uncertainty brought on by current market conditions.

“When you have turmoil from uncertainty in North America, it’s a little bit more burdensome temporarily,” he said during an earnings call. “We know how to work with it short term. More importantly, we have built a very strong—so to speak—platform for the future in North America.”

Jason Seidl, transport analyst for TD Cowen, wrote in a note to investors that while carriers called out the mixed landscape (optimistic on tax policy, rate outlook, though negative on tariffs, consumer confidence), the industrial economy “remains challenged.”

Other LTL executives said overcapacity in the truckload sector is the key to economic recovery in both TL and LTL sectors.

“At the end of the day, the truckload sector needs to move toward market equilibrium so pricing returns to sustainable levels,” Peter Latta, chairman of A. Duie Pyle, the nation’s 16^th-largest LTL carrier, said at the end of last year.

“Hopefully, such a return is driven by the demand side of the equation, which will favorably impact both the truckload and LTL sectors,” Latta added.