November intermodal volumes see annual decline, reports IANA

November intermodal volumes fell annually, according to data provided to LM by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

Total November volume, at 1,456,259 units, fell 4.1% annually, following a 2.0% annual decline in October and respective 2.4% and 1.6% annual gains seen in September and August, respectively. Which was preceded by July’s 4.4% annual gain, which saw higher volumes due to the pulling-forward of goods being imported during the previous pause on the White House’s reciprocal tariffs.

Trailers, at 36,955, were down 29.6% annually, steeper than October’s 25.0% decline. Domestic containers, at 737,057, slipped 1.1% annually, and all domestic equipment, which is comprised of trailers and domestic containers, at 774,012, were down 2.9%. ISO, or international containers, at 682,247, were off 5.5% annually.

Through the first 11 months of 2025, IANA reported that total volume, at 16,965,187, increased 2.5% compared to the same period a year ago. Trailers were down 22.1%, to 419,810, and domestic containers, at 7,999,415, increased 3.1% annually. All domestic equipment posted a 1.5% annual gain, to 8,419,225. ISO containers, at 8,545,962, posted a 3.5% annual increase.

Total third quarter intermodal volume, which was recently announced by IANA, at 4,757,324, increased 2.8% annually, hit its highest level since the second quarter 2021. Domestic containers, at 2,221,466, were up 2.5% annually, and trailers were down 18.7%, to 115,950. All domestic equipment, which is made up of domestic containers and trailers, came in at 2,337,416, for a 1.2% annual increase. And ISO, or international containers, at 2,419,908, saw a 4.4% annual gain.  The third quarter was 25,000 loads below the record-third quarter volume seen in 2024.

IANA President and CEO Anne Reinke said that third quarter volumes were paced by the pairing of resilient consumer demand, backed by strong rail service, providing overall lift to intermodal volumes. And she added that frontloaded imports continued to be part of the story as they have throughout the year.

Addressing Peak Season, Reinke noted that, “October volumes look like they could be the peak for the year, as was the case last year. While international container shipments have dipped, domestic containers are moving, helped along by manufacturing strength.” 

Looking at the trucking market, Reinke explained that tightening trucking conditions and increased trucking regulations represent what would definitely be a tailwind for intermodal.

As for how a potentially more stable and certain global trade environment benefit international intermodal going forward, Reinke noted there are a few things to take into consideration.

“Around 60% of intermodal traffic is import-driven, so trade certainty has a positive effect on intermodal as it does for overall business investment,” she said. “It also helps that we are seeing pullback on some trade barriers.”

When asked to assess how the fourth quarter is going volume-wise, Reinke said that IANA expects it will be soft annually, due to challenging volume comparisons, while also noting it is optimistic about 2026 based on trucking conditions, in terms of structural and capacity tightening.

“October volumes, as mentioned, were likely the strongest of the year,” said Reinke. “Our expectation is that the quarter will be soft year-over-year due to challenging comps, but we are optimistic about 2026 based on the trucking conditions.”

To that end in regards to trucking, the IANA report said that the structural landscape is changing, which will eventually yield a stronger market and improve the competitive position of domestic intermodal, despite the current weakness in demand.

“Government data implies that for-hire trucking employment is tighter than official estimates suggest, and several pressures are aligning to constrain capacity [regulatory and enforcement impacts, insurance surge, and future equipment constraint],” said IANA. “Near-term freight demand remains a neutral to negative catalyst.  The overall freight forecast is tepid, with the outlook for the dry van segment, the most competitive aspect for domestic intermodal, looking especially sluggish. A stronger truck freight market, and consequently an improved competitive dynamic for domestic intermodal, is firmly on the horizon but it will be a journey to get there. Sluggish demand and the lead time required for capacity constraints to fully materialize and affect rates are expected to take time.”

In what has been an eventful 2025, for freight transportation, intermodal sector market conditions are not an exception, for various reasons, including: ongoing economic uncertainty, driven largely by shifts in tariff levies and trade policies; shifts in import levels, due to pull-forward or front-loading of U.S.-bound imports; and a sluggish industrial economy and manufacturing outlook, although intermodal is more closely tied to consumer spending.