IANA reports solid Q4 start for intermodal, driven by West Coast imports and robust consumer spending

Intermodal volumes kicked off the fourth quarter with another month of solid growth in October, according to data provided to LM by the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).

Total October volume, at 1,649,394 units, increased 8.9% annually, said IANA.

Trailers were the lone intermodal segment to see a decline, falling 0.7% annually, to 53,261 units. Domestic containers, at 788,841, headed up 5.8% annually. All domestic equipment, which is comprised of trailers and domestic containers, came in at 842,102 units, for a 5.4% annual increase. ISO, or international, containers, at 807,292, increased 12.7% annually.

On a year-to-date basis through October, IANA reported total volume, at 15,038,002 units, posted an 8.8% annual increase. Trailers, at 486,245, fell 17.6%, and domestic containers, at 7,014,912, rose 4.9% annually. All domestic equipment, at 7,501,157, saw a 3.1% annual gain. ISO containers posted a 15.2% annual gain, to 7,536,845.    

This continues a strong run of intermodal growth, as per IANA’s data.

Third quarter intermodal volumes maintained solid momentum, according to data issued in its “Intermodal Quarterly.” IANA reported that total third quarter volume, at 4,627,631 units, headed up 9.8% annually, growing for the fourth consecutive quarter, following eight straight quarters of annual declines. The first and second quarters saw annual gains of 8.8% and 7.7%, respectively.

Domestic containers, at 2,167,091, saw a 6.0% annual increase, and trailers, at 142,661, fell 11.0% annually. All domestic equipment, which is comprised of trailers and domestic containers, came in at 2,309,752, for a 4.7% annual increase. And ISO, or international, containers, at 2,317,879, rose 15.4%.

The IANA report stated that consumers maintained “aggressive spending” in the third quarter, which matched up with third quarter retail sales posting a 1.0% annual gain, representing the highest quarterly annual growth percentage, going back to the initial pandemic recovery in 2021, noted IANA. It also observed that despite a two-year slump in manufacturing and problematic homebuilding, the economy is on solid footing.

IANA said that intermodal volume patterns are following a typical seasonal upswing pattern, coming to a late summer peak and subsequently declining over the balance of the year. It said that 2024 intermodal growth has been largely driven by the surge in West Coast imports that were diverted away from the brief East and Gulf Coast port labor stoppage that subsequently led to international container traffic gains.

IANA explained that the pairing of import growth and resilient economic activity is helping to deliver strong international intermodal volumes year-to-date, adding that fourth quarter annual comparisons are expected to be more difficult, with the segment expected to be up 12.6% annually.

Outgoing IANA President & CEO Joni Casey told LM that third quarter volumes saw a boost in the form of growth in international containers, fueled by West Coast imports and pull forward volumes, due to a threat of an East and Gulf Coast port labor stoppage, which he said were the key growth drivers in the quarter.

“We expect international loads to remain strong through the end of the year,” she said.

When asked about the impact of the brief East and Gulf Coast port’s labor stoppage on intermodal, she explained that the immediate impact was negligible.

“However, until a final contract is in place, we will probably see additional volume growth attributed to this uncertainty in Q4,” said Casey. “Q1 volumes will be driven by the status of a new labor agreement and traditional Asian New Year traffic.”

With many experts saying the freight market is bottoming, or approaching a bottoming, coupled with excess truckload capacity still a factor, Casey observed that a tightening of truckload capacity would be viewed as a tailwind for intermodal business, adding that it is “a matter of time when over-the-road capacity becomes more constrained,” with projections running the gamut from the second quarter to the third quarter in 2025.