Post-Thanksgiving week spot market truckload load posts see strong gains, reports DAT

Data recently issued on the DAT One network provided to LM by DAT Freight & Analytics highlighted more seasonal metrics for truckload spot market load posts, following the week of Thanksgiving.

For the week of December 1-6, DAT reported that 2.18 million loads were available, representing a 114% sequential increase, as well as posting the highest weekly tally since the week before the July 4 holiday (DAT observed that comparing a full week to a three-0day week can produce outsized percentage differences in trucks and loads posted). The firm added that there was a total of 266,747 available trucks posted on the DAT One network, increasing 19%, with DAT noting that tight capacity relative to demand drive up load-to-truck ratios for the three equipment types it tracks, including dry vans, reefers, and flatbeds.

The weekly breakdown for van loads, van equipment, load-to-truck ration and linehaul rates for Dry Vans, Reefers (refrigerated), and flatbeds provided by DAT is below:

Dry Vans:

• Van loads: 1.14 million, up 108% week over week;
• Van equipment: 175,497, up 20.7%;
• Linehaul rate: $1.72 net fuel, up 1 cent; and 
• Load-to-truck ratio: 6.5, up from 3.8

Reefers:

• Reefer loads: 483,159, up 117.5% week over week;
• Reefer equipment: 55,749, up 11.3%;
• Linehaul rate: $2.05 net fuel, unchanged; and
• Load-to-truck ratio: 8.7, up from 4.4

Flatbeds:

• Flatbed loads: 561,113, up 123.1% week over week;
• Flatbed equipment: 35,501, up 25.2%;
• Linehaul rate: $1.97 net fuel, down 1 cent; and
• Load-to-truck ratio: 15.8, up from 8.9

“Demand for dry vans resulted in a 1-cent increase in the national average van linehaul rate to $1.72 a mile,” noted DAT iQ Industry Analyst Dean Croke. “That’s 7 cents more than last year and 8 cents lower than the same week in 2022. The linehaul rate on DAT’s Top 50 van lanes (based on the volume of loads moved) averaged $2.06 a mile. That’s up 1 cent week over week and 34 cents higher than the weekly national average. At $2.05 a mile, the national average linehaul reefer rate was 11 cents higher than last year and 4 cents lower than the same week in 2022.”

Croke also noted that Mexican produce imports gearing up, with most Mexican produce entering the United States via the Pharr International Bridge near McAllen, Texas and the McAllen reefer market reporting 34% higher truckload volume than last year, while capacity has tightened somewhat, with outbound spot rates up 2% year over year.  Almost a third of McAllen’s volume is destined for the Dallas-Fort Worth market. Reefer truckload volumes from McAllen to Dallas-Fort Worth are up 32% year over year, he said, while at the same time, sufficient spot reefer capacity has kept outbound linehaul rates on the lane flat at around $2.60 a mile.

In a recent interview with LM, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo said that truckload spot market conditions have been positive amid reports of industry tightness, which is a byproduct of when people start chasing rates upwards and also serve as an opportunity of a market strongly returning.

“It's really kind of hard though, to parse out,” he said. “How much is seasonality and how much is macro? It's really impossible to tell right now. It's probably some seasonality, but I think it's also some of that pull-forward, and some of that uncertainty, some of that just carrier attrition having stopped in the macro market. There's just a lot of signals that we're recovering.”

As for capacity availability, Adamo said capacity and demand has been in equilibrium since around late July and possibly as far back as May during Roadcheck week, defining equilibrium as meaning no single event throws the market off-kilter.

“It just temporarily disrupts it and brings it back—that, to me, is probably the best indicator of equilibrium,” he said. “You saw both hurricanes and the brief port strike, with blips and then returns,” he said. “Now is the first time we are starting to see prolonged momentum. But I am very cautious, because I think it is also the busiest peak shipping season of the year. January 15 is typically when the returns stop flowing and the market starts to go back into its seasonal slumber so we will see of this can affect that. Back in 2021, at that time, the Delta Variant and the Polar Vortex both hit and rates were over a cliff and them immediately sprung back up. I don't think this will have that effect, but I think it could meaningfully change some of the post-holiday dynamic.”