2025 parcel peak volumes are expected to climb as shippers brace for higher fees, says ShipMatrix

When it comes to peak season planning, there are many variables that come to mind and need to be considered. Those variables include things like capacity, demand, inventory levels, and whatever obstacles that arise along the way.

For the parcel market, though, a forecast issued this week by Warrenville, Pa.-based ShipMatrix, is calling for growth, in its “Parcel Market Forecast for Peak 2025.”

The firm said that based on its estimates it expects that 2.3 million packages will be delivered over this year’s peak, representing a 5% annual gain, attributing the expected increase to one more shopping day than there was in 2024.

From a pricing perspective, ShipMatrix observed that shippers will again see two-part, as well as higher, surcharges this year, effective October 27, despite peak volumes having been essentially flat going back to 2021.

“Peak surcharges were justified and benefited even the shippers prior to 2020 when the peak season volumes in average daily volumes spiked by 50% or more,” said ShipMatrix.  “During Christmas week of 2013, the demand exceeded capacity by 97%. It was such imbalance and impact of snow blizzards, that the Big 3 (FedEx, UPS and USPS) had raw on-time performance of 80%, the lowest ShipMatrix has tracked since 2010. Impact of such spike in volume on carriers’ operating cost and delivery performance for retailers and consumers prompted ShipMatrix to recommend to the industry to implement a peak season surcharge with its commentary on December 31, 2013.”

What’s more, when further peeling the onion on peak season surcharges, the company observed that this year’s increases see variations compared to 2024, including:

• a 33% increase for FedEx Ground;
• a 60% increase for UPS Ground (ShipMatrix said that these charges are now equivalent between FedEx and UPS);
• FedEx Ground Economy increased 16% and UPS Ground Saver increased 60%, with ShipMatrix noting that the UPS surcharge is still significantly lower than FedEx’s
• the FedEx Express surcharge increased 5%, with UPS rising 10% for express services, with both surcharges starting from the same baseline in 2024;
• as for the USPS, it said that while it has lower surcharges, “it is doing so despite its claim to have capacity to handle 85 million packages per day when the demand will not exceed 40 million per day”

Another key point made by ShipMatrix noted how should peak season surcharges continue to increase going forward, big players like Amazon and Walmart and also smaller ones like OnTrac, Better Truck, Jitsu, DoorDash, and Uber Eats, “will be delivering more parcels than the Big 3 combined by 2027.”

While it expects to see a 5% volume gain for the 2025 peak, ShipMatrix explained that comes with the caveat that, for FedEx and Amazon, volumes are pegged to climb 5%-to-8%, while UPS and USPS are expected to come in flat, should volume growth levels seen over the first half of the year remain intact.

As for how the 2025 parcel peak season could impact things in 2026, ShipMatrix was direct, in saying that maybe the Big 3’s experiences with volumes, “will draw their attention to lower peak surcharges in 2026 to start regaining their lost volume. Alternatively, they could apply the surcharges during cyber week and Christmas week since the holiday shopping season now starts with Halloween.”

Since the pandemic, to be sure, the concept of peak season has meant different things at different times for different industry stakeholders—and one can make the argument that 2025 will not be an exception. That said, while consumers remain cautious, with a close eye on their wallets, due to tariffs, inflation, and uncertainty, it still stands to reason that a hectic 2025 parcel market peak season is in the cards, which is made clear by the detailed ShipMatrix forecast.