U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index points to declining Q4 shipment and spend readings

The fourth quarter 2024 edition of the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, which was released earlier this week, pointed to ongoing shipment and volume declines to end 2024.

This report, which was initially launched in the third quarter of 2017, is comprised of data on freight shipping volumes and spend on both a national and regional basis. The report’s data is based on the actual transaction payment date, highest-volume domestic freight modes of truckload and less-than-truckload and is seasonally- and calendar-adjusted. Its historical data goes back to 2010, with a base point of 100, and its index point for each subsequent quarter marks that quarter’s volume in relation to the preceding quarter. U.S. Bank Freight Payment's business processed $46 billion in 2022 for some of the world’s largest corporations and government agencies.

The report’s fourth quarter shipment index value, at 80.1, was down 4.7% compared to the third quarter and was off 15.7% annually, with the former representing the tenth consecutive sequential decrease, as well as the steepest decline going back to the first quarter of 2024. On a quarterly basis, fourth quarter shipments were down 2.2% compared to the third quarter, with sequential declines seen over each quarter—and the fourth quarter decline was the second smallest, following the third quarter’s 1.4% decrease.

On a regional basis, shipments saw sequential and annual declines across the board, including: West down 10.1% annually and down 2.1% sequentially; Midwest down 16.2% annually and down 5.2% sequentially; Northeast down 18.6% annually and down 1.2% sequentially; Southwest down 17.2% annually and down 5.1% sequentially; and Southeast down 16.1% annually and down 6.7% sequentially.

Fourth quarter freight spend, at 182.4, was off 2.2%, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and fell 22.0% annually. This was below the 186.6 third quarter reading.

Spend data was mostly down on a regional basis, including: West, up 0.1% sequentially, and down 18.2% annually; Southwest, flat sequentially, and down 17.5% annually; Midwest, down 1.7% sequentially, and down 24.2% annually; Northeast, up 0.9% sequentially, and down 25.1% annually; and Southeast, down 6.7% sequentially, and down 22.9% annually.

“While this quarter’s Index revealed spending overall on truck freight continues to decline, we did see some signs that spending per truck is increasing,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Shipments falling more than spending —even with lower fuel surcharges—suggests tighter capacity.”   

The report’s author, American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello, wrote that truck freight continued to battle softness and new housing starts in sluggish factory output headwinds during the final quarter of 2024, as both truck freight volumes and spending declined from the previous quarter versus a year earlier

“A reboot in the truck freight market is slower than anticipated for both motor carriers and shippers alike and it’s becoming clear that they’re both cycle and structural challenges remaining in the truck freight market,” observed Costello.