Expected U.S.-bound import declines remain intact, notes Port Tracker report

Keeping in line with sentiment shared last month, the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, again pointed to United States-bound import declines over the balance of the year, due to the pairing of most holiday merchandise having already stocked and ongoing impacts related to the White House’s tariffs.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

The White House recently rolled out 25% tariffs on upholstered furniture regardless of country and a matching 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities that will go into effect next week and are set to subsequently increase in January, as well as an increase in tariffs on imports from China that was previously paused for 90 days in August are set to take effect November 10, the report said, but that comes with the caveat of the U.S. and China inking a deal or the possibility of the White House electing to issue another pause.

“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”

For August, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report, came in at 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), off 2.9% compared to July and up 0.1% annually.

Port Tracker issued projections for September and the subsequent months, including:

• September, at 2.12 million TEU, for a 6.8% annual decrease;
• October, at 1.97 million TEU, a 12.3% annual decline;
• November, at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2% annually;
• December, at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4% annually, which would mark the lowest-volume month since March 2023’s 1.62 million TEU;
• January, at 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1% annually; and
• February, at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8% annually

While the report attributed the estimated declines in the coming months to tariffs, it explained that the annual declines are due to the early Peak Season, as well as late 2024 imports coming in higher, due to concerns related to a potential port strike at the time.

For the first half of 2025, Port Tracker said that total volume, at 12.53 million TEU, rose 3.7% annually, with calendar year 2025 expected to be down 2.9% annually, to 25.5 million TEU.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff and immigration policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see what he described as unpredictable shifts over the next four-to-six months.

“We have to assume that some tariffs will remain in place, although the steepest announced increases may not materialize,” he wrote. “So far, large importers have been able to absorb some of the increased costs brought about by tariffs, but smaller importers may lack the ability to do so. Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”