May retail sales see annual gains, reports Commerce and NRF

Retail sales were mixed in May, according to data respectively issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and United States Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce and the National Retail Federation (NRF).

Commerce reported that May retail sales, at $715.4 billion, fell 0.9% compared to April and rose 3.3% annually. And it added that total retail sales, from March through May, increased 2.5% compared to the same period a year ago.

Retail trade sales were off 0.9% compared to April and were up 3.0% annually, and non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce sales, jumped 8.3% over April, with food service and drinking places rose 5.3% annually.

NRF reported that May’s core retail sales, which are based on Census data and exclude automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants, increased 0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from April to May, and rose 3.9% on an unadjusted basis annually. And it added that core retail sales rose 4.4% annually on a three-month moving average and were up 3.9% through the first five months of 2025.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, which was released last week, observed that, core retail sales were up 0.23% on a seasonally-adjusted basis month-over-month in May and up 4.2% on an unadjusted basis annually, compared with increases of 0.9%. sequentially and 7.11% annually in April.

“We’re continuing to see growth for core retail sales this year at about the same pace as last year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Despite a soft labor market, aggregate consumer spending has been supported by wage gains and an improvement in the stock market. Consumers are seeing their way through the uncertainty with trade policies, but I expect the inflation associated with tariffs to be felt later this year. Consumers remain very price sensitive, and those costs are likely to weigh heavily on consumer budgets.”    

Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData, wrote in a research note that May was a fairly normalized month for retail sales, at least at headline level.

“Total spending grew by 3.1%, which is a respectable, average rate of growth,” he wrote. “Inflation continues to flatter these numbers slightly, with underlying volume growth coming in at a less robust 1.5%. From our data, while there have been small pockets of accelerating prices, within most core categories, we did not see a surge in tariff-related price hikes during May. That may well change as the course of the year progresses and as inventory affected by tariffs starts to appear on shelves.

All in all, the numbers demonstrate the underlying resilience of the consumer even in the face of economic uncertainty. The truth is that during May, consumer finances did not deteriorate significantly, and there was some relief from lower gas prices. So, the ability to spend remained largely intact. The willingness to spend also improved modestly as consumer confidence rebounded after some sharp falls. This partly reflects people getting over the initial shock of tariff announcements. However, in our view, confidence remains fragile and is subject to sudden change—especially if the economy deteriorates and if tariffs start to have more of an impact on prices. This clouds the balance of the year in a degree of uncertainty.”