June retail sales see growth despite tariff worries

United States June retail sales were mixed, according to data issued today by the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau.

June retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading day differences but not price changes, came in at $720.1 billion, up 0.6% over May’s $715.5 billion and up 3.9% annually. And total retail sales, from April through June, posted a 4.1% annual gain compared to the same period a year ago.

Commerce reported that retail trade sales increased 0.6% over May and 3.5% annually, and non-store retailers, which includes e-commerce, posted a 4.5% annual gain. And food service and drinking places saw a 6.6% annual gain.

While the June data from Commerce showed sequential and annual gains, the recently-released CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, in partnership with Affinity Solutions pointed to mixed readings, with total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline down 0.33% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, from May to June, and up 3.19% on an unadjusted basis annually, following May’s 0.49% sequential increase and 4.44% annual gain.

And it added that the Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) fell 0.32% sequentially in June while increasing 3.36% annually, compared with increases of 0.23% sequentially and 4.2% annually in May. Through the first six months of 2025 the Retail Monitor reported that total retail sales increased 4.66%, with core retail sales seeing a 4.93% annual gain, adding that the sequential declines marked the first ones going back to February, when they both dropped 0.22% from January.

“June’s numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach with their household budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This was the first monthly decline since February, and spending was down across almost all sectors. Economic fundamentals haven’t been disrupted yet and shoppers still have the ability to spend on priorities, but the economy is gradually slowing and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers. While passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ is clearly supportive of economic growth, unresolved and restrictive trade policies remain a significant headwind.”

Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData, observed in a research note that at the halfway point of 2025, the retail sector has emerged relatively unscathed.

“While tariffs have grabbed the headlines—and have caused a great deal of uncertainty—they have not hit the retail sector with full force,” wrote Saunders. “Most of this is because the deadlines for tariffs to be imposed have been constantly moved, and most stock being sold in the half was not subject to additional levies. As a result, inflation has not been too onerous, and it has not deterred the consumer from buying. The question, of course, is whether the reasonable first half performance continues into the second half. With tariff deadlines now looming, inflation coming in hotter, and a range of economic pressures stacked up, there is every likelihood that performance will moderate – especially in volume terms. However, it is still unlikely that the consumer will fall into a full-blown recession – especially so if interest rates come down. It is also the case that tariff pressure will materialize in a lot of different places, other than the sales line. A lot of retailers are absorbing higher tariff levies, so areas like margins may also feel the squeeze.”