DAT Truckload Volume Index is mixed with spot rates up and volumes down

Following May, which saw volume gains help to bump up spot truckload rates, the June edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, was somewhat different, in that spot truckload rates were up, while the actual number of loads moved headed down, DAT Freight and Analytics recently reported.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of June, including:

• the van TVI, at 266, down 9% compared to an all-time high reading of 289 set in May;
• the refrigerated TVI, at 199, down 11% compared to May’s 224 reading, which was also an all-time high;
• the flatbed TVI, at 279, down 11%, declining for the second straight month, after five-month stretch of growth through April;
• the national average spot van rate, at $2.07 per mile, rose $0.06 compared to May;
• the national average spot reefer rate, at $2.45 per mile, increased $0.04 over May;
• the national average spot flatbed rate, at $2.53 per mile, headed up $0.01;
• the national average van linehaul rate, at $1.64 per mile, was up $0.06;
• the national average reefer rate rose $0.05, to $1.99;
• the national average flatbed rate increased $0.01, to $2.02;
• the national average contract van rate, at $2.44 per mile, was up $0.01;
• the national average contract reefer rate, at $2.81 per mile, was up $0.02;
• the national average contract flatbed rate, at $3.14 per mile, fell $0.02; and
• load-to-truck ratios were mixed, with van, at 4.7, up from May’s 4.4, with 4.7 loads for every van, reefer, at 7.0, up from 6.3, and flatbed, at 14.6, down from 18.0 (DAT explained that ratios were up annually, with the June 2023 average van ratio, at 3.5, reefer at 5.5, and flatbed at 13.3

“The month ended strong for dry van freight, with nearly 25% more volume moving during the final week of June compared to last year,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics, in a statement. “While demand for trucking services entered July on a high note, we expect freight activity to ease during the summer. This remains a challenging market for freight carriers and brokers.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo said that June’s data was essentially a continuation of May, in terms of certain metrics and market conditions.

He noted that the period from the middle of May through July 4 was strong, kicking off with Road Check week and subsequently building up from there.

“As a month, I don't think we turned aggregate year over year positive,” he said. “I think we simply fell like a penny or two short. But, certainly by the tail end of the month on a daily basis, we were year-over-year positive for the first time in 26 or 27 months, depending on how you slice or dice it. So, as typically happens, post Fourth of July, things cool down. It's with kind of shocking similarity to last year, the way that it's the dry van rates, in particular, are sitting smack dab since the Fourth of July, almost on a daily basis, or they were on the primary year.

And he noted that there is quite a bit of distance between 2019 and where things stand now, which is good, adding that last year this time, it was a very lackluster second half of the year.

“So, the question is do rates pull out of that cycle and start to put some actual daylight between last year and this year or do they follow it exactly?” he said. I think that would essentially end up being what you would largely consider to be like a lost year, if that's what happens.”

Since the July 4 holiday, Adamo said rates are down around $0.05, on nearly the same exact glide path as a year ago at this time. Should that continue, he noted that could grow to between 7.5-to-10 cents between now and August.

“That's the typical seasonality,” he said. “There's only really two years in the last 10-plus years where rates actually increased over that period, which would be 2020, the Covid year, and then 2021, with the Omicron and Delta variants. All of the seasonal patterns would suggest that it's going to just be essentially, what I call ‘freight’s vacation.” From the middle of July to late August, there is just generally not a whole lot going on. Most of the activity is on the ocean this time of year in the global supply chain, or really with the fact that orders are getting in. There's still a lot of ocean disruption out there, frankly, so I think you're probably going to see a continued pull forward of that fall retail inventory. Prices aren't great on the on the ocean, so I think that will largely be the story for the next several weeks to a couple months.”

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