Weekly spot market loads trend down, reports DAT

Data recently issued on the DAT One network provided to LM by DAT Freight & Analytics pointed to a decline in truckload spot market load posts, for the week of October 20-26.

The firm reported that 1.94 million loads were available, which marked a 10% sequential decline, while ahead of the same week in 2023 by 19%. And it added that there was a total of 335,458 available trucks, down 1.5% sequentially.

The weekly breakdown for van loads, van equipment, load-to-truck ration and linehaul rates for Dry Vans, Reefers (refrigerated), and flatbeds provided by DAT is below:

Dry Vans

• Van loads: 912,255, down 9% week over week;
• Van equipment: 221,998, down 1.5%;
• Linehaul rate: $1.65 net fuel, unchanged; 
• Load-to-truck ratio: 4.1, down from 4.4;

Reefers

• Reefer loads: 381,447, down 15% week over week;
• Reefer equipment: 69,033, down 0.5%;
• Linehaul rate: $1.98 net fuel, down 1 cent;
• Load-to-truck ratio: 5.5, down from 6.5;

Flatbeds

• Flatbed loads: 649,631, down 8% week over week;
• Flatbed equipment: 44,427, down 3%;
• Linehaul rate: $1.97 net fuel, down 2 cents;
• Load-to-truck ratio: 14.6, down from 15.4

DAT iQ Industry Analyst Dean Croke observed that amid this weekly data there are some promising signs in van freight.

“Excluding the pandemic-affected 2021 and 2022, van load posts for Week 43 were 27% higher than in previous years,” he said. “Van capacity was flat compared to the previous week, pushing the dry van load-to-truck ratio lower. That’s still strong compared to other years: only 2021 had a higher Week 43 showing when the van ratio was 5.25.”

Addressing the 15% decline in national reefer load postings on the heels of a surge the prior week, Croke said it was partly due to an 8% drop in USDA produce volumes in California compared to the previous week.

And on the flatbed side, he noted that with load volume up 7% week-over-week and 3% month-over-month, “weaker prices signal ample capacity in the market.”

Earlier this month, DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo told LM that until there is a demand catalyst, the freight recovery will be tempered as it relates to demand.

“I was recently told that it is really hard to sustain recovery on the back of capacity exiting,” he said. “That is really true. You need both.”

Looking ahead, barring a big systemic shift in demand, which could happen post-election, in that it will bring some certainty back to the market, Adamo said things are likely to come back down, with the expectation of a slow January and February to start 2025.

“With fuel included…we’re actually creeping up on 2017 levels, from a rate perspective,” he said. “When you take fuel out, which is 99% of our analytics on a trend basis excluding fuel, we have almost a full dime between last year’s rates, just based on the back of recent events but still well short of 2017 and 2018 levels by ten-to-15 cents. We are kind of in ‘no man’s land,’ from where we are on a rate perspective, but that is kind of a good thing, I think, because of how poor the last couple of years have been. It remains to be seen, though, in terms of if we see that continued strength and demand, with interest rates down and homebuying seeming to be ticking up a little bit.”