DAT: March truckload volumes rise, but market waits on demand to unlock rate rebound

Spot truckload volumes and rates were mixed in March, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Index, which was issued today by DAT Freight and Analytics.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of March, including:

• the van TVI, at 276, was up 5% compared to February and up 7% annually;
• the refrigerated TVI, at 218, was up 1% compared to February, and up 8% annually;
• the flatbed TVI, at 316, was up 13% compared to February and up 11% annually (DAT noted that March typically has higher truckload freight volumes than February, due to more business days and better weather);
• national average spot rates mostly saw across-the-board declines, with van, at $1.99 per mile (down $0.05 from February), reefer, at $2.27 per mile (down $0.09 from February); and flatbed, at $2.53 (up $0.08 from February) 
• the van linehaul rate, at $1.60 per mile, was down $0.04, the reefer rate, at $1.85 per mile, was down $0.07), and the flatbed rate, at $2.06, was up $0.09 (DAT said that linehaul rates exclude an average fuel surcharge amount, which was $0.39, $0.42, and $0.47, for vans, reefers, and flatbeds, respectively)
• contract truckload rates per mile saw declines, with van, at $2.40 per mile (down $0.03 from February and $0.07 annually), reefer at $2.72 (down $0.03 from February and $0.12 annually), and flatbed, at $3.04 (down $0.02 from February and $0.08 annually)

“Flatbed demand didn’t match March 2017 or 2018, but it was greater than carriers have been used to lately,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics. “Tariff uncertainty was a factor but so was tighter capacity. Roughly 30% of flatbed loads move on the spot market compared to 12%-to-15% for vans and reefers. The equipment and driver skills are specialized and spot-market demand is highly seasonal. When there are fewer trucks, it affects the flatbed market more than the others. Compared to the spot market, contract pricing has been consistent for the last 12-to-15 months. That may change if tariffs and geopolitical issues disrupt supply chains and shippers turn to the spot market for available trucks. For now, though, shippers and brokers continue to hold on to pricing power.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo addressed market conditions by equipment type.

Looking at the flatbed market, he noted that it is probably the most talked about sector of the market right now, which has been seen in load-to truck data, which he said DAT tracks as a type of an early warning indicator, with rates coming back from March levels.

“As we have gotten into April with the tariff scare and some clamping down on purchasing and delivery or raw, heavy materials, coupled with the collapse in oil prices, it has kind of tempered back some of that rally for flatbeds,” he said. “But we saw basically from the end of January through the end of March, was tear that the flatbed market went on, and subsequently, as people caught on, it's just been talked about a lot. The refrigerated side is a slow start to produce and just a general kind of malaise in refrigerated shipping. Those numbers are barely off last year’s trend.”

As for dry van, Adamo said that it is kind of right in the middle, with some distance between where rates were last year and where they are now, with industry stakeholders hoping for more market momentum at this point, while activity has been dinted by ongoing tariff actions causing a lot of uncertainty.

And he added that level of uncertainty is not the type of uncertainty that can be planned around, like tropical weather, mudslides, or floods, for example. In examining President Trump’s first term in office, he cited tax cuts, the ELD mandate, and even the pandemic as things that the market could take into concern, calibrate, and plan around, which essentially remained the case until the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

“What we are seeing now are these types of periods, or cycle reversals, seemingly every week,” he said. “If tariff actions keep getting delayed, there is going to continue to be this wild oscillation—that is just not volatility that this market is going to benefit from.”

What’s more, Adamo said that going forward, industry stakeholders are likely to see the effects of the ongoing uncertainty in the form of higher rates, with the market pricing in that uncertainty in the contract market, whereas in the spot market it comes down to lid on the lack of volume.

“We've been saying for a while that the market is pretty much at equilibrium,” said Adamo. “We saw March was the first month in 31 months that net carrier counts were positive as reported by FMCSA. It's all good news, but you still need that lid to come off, which is getting the capacity situation sorted. Now we need volume to come back to spring rates into action. And you see that with flatbed without a doubt. There's evidence there that the market is just waiting for demand volume to start. I think it's the start and stops. There was a period there in March where we saw we were averaging over a million loads a day for the first time in a long time, the first time in two or three years. But last week’s [tariff developments] choked it back off again. There is also sort of this false frenzy calling for shippers to pull forward in anticipation of tariff announcements, and if things keep getting delayed that is going to stop.”