Spot truckload volumes and rates see August declines, reports DAT

Spot truckload volumes and rates saw declines in August on the heels of a tariff-driven pull-forward of imports, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which was released today by DAT Freight and Analytics.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of August, including:

• the van TVI, at 236, was down 8% compared to July and down 7% annually;
• the refrigerated (reefer) TVI, at 193, was down 6% compared to July and up 1% annually;
• the flatbed TVI, at 298, was down 6% compared to July and up 2% annually;
• national average spot rates mostly were down, with van, at $2.03 per mile, down $0.02 from July, reefer, at $2.41 per mile, down $0.01 from July, and flatbed, at $2.49 per mile, off $0.06;
• linehaul rates, which exclude an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, were in line with changes to broker-to-carrier spot rates, with van down $0.02, to $1.61, per mile and up $0.02 sequentially, reefer flat at $1.96 and up $0.01 annually; and flatbed down $0.05, to $1.99 and up $0.07 annually; and
• contract rates saw declines, with van, at $2.42 per mile, down $0.02 sequentially; reefer, at $2.74 per mile, down $0.04 sequentially; and flatbed, at $3.09 per mile, down $0.02 sequentially

DAT said that the number of available loads on the spot market headed up over the last week of August, due to the pairing of a national brake-inspection campaign and the lead-up to Labor Day weekend tightening capacity. It also noted that August freight volumes were softer than usual, especially for van loads, coupled with the Van TVI turning in its lowest reading for the month of August since 2021.

DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo told LM that, in looking at the demand side, things like tariffs, interest rates, and general economic uncertainty, continue to weigh heavily on the market, adding that demand in August did not perform in a way that would drive the market. He also noted that the last week of August was part of what he called a very favorable freight calendar, with Labor Day coming early as it can come on the calendar (September 1) and the Friday before it the last business day of August.

When asked about the declines in TVI readings from July to August, Adamo said that the focus needs to be more on that lack of movement within the market.

“Dry van contract rates have not moved by more than $0.01, for the most part, over the last year-and-a-half [sequentially],” he said. “It is remarkable when you think about it. If we did not have the ‘fake out’ that happened in mid-2023, where the market probably oversold itself a little bit, the rates would have been at $2 conceivably for the last two-and-a-half years. I just don't think there's any reason for the market to move systemically, and if there was, we'd see it manifest in both contract volumes and contract rates, neither of which are moving.”

What’s more, Adamo said that he does not see any clear reason for the market to move systemically and if there was, it would manifest in both contract volumes and contract rates—neither of which are moving.

From a seasonal perspective, he observed that at the end of August the spot market gets busier, with some Peak Season retail pull-forward and late back-to-school activity. On an anecdotal basis, he said some retailers have indicated that some freight, based on availability, may have arrived a little later and further reduced into August.

“There is some optimism for the fourth quarter, but even an optimistic view for the quarter has changed from now to what that would have been in the first quarter,” he said. “The bull case for the fourth quarter would have been for dry van rates seeing 10%-to-15% positive gains across the board, and now if things are closer to 3%-to-5%, it is a bullish quarter.”

As for what fourth quarter Peak Season activity could look like, Adamo said once mid-October arrives, the seasonal peak starts to ramp up, noting he expects that to be the case again in 2025.

“Even in bad years, like last year, we saw a seasonal peak that was pretty good, and it held on for a while and then the tariff talk started,” he said.