Spot rates Inch up, but truckload spot market remains soft heading into year-end, reports DAT

October spot truckload volumes and rates were largely mixed again, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index, which was recently released by DAT Freight and Analytics.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of October, including:

• the van TVI, at 232, was down 3% compared to September and down 11% annually;
• the refrigerated (reefer) TVI, at 184, was down 2% compared to September and up 7% annually;
• the flatbed TVI, at 305, was down 4% compared to September and up 3% annually;
• national average spot rates rose, with van, at $2.07 per mile, up $0.02 from September, reefer, at $2.48 per mile, up $0.04 from September, and flatbed, at $2.51 per mile, up $0.01 (DAT said spot rates were higher in October 2024, with the van rate averaging $2.02 per mile, with reefer and flatbed, at $2.39 and $2.42, respectively); an
• contract rates were largely flat, with van, at $2.42 per mile, flat, for the third straight month, reefer, at $2.78 per mile, up $0.2; and flatbed, at $3.09, up $0.03

“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, DAT Chief of Analytics, in a statement. “As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually non-existent this year.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo said that October saw some of the effects of the visa and immigration issues related to driver CDLs cropping up and then receding throughout October, while observing that the second half of September had been really strong, with some of that momentum carrying over into early October, which subsequently trended back down and essentially serving as a preview of November.

“As of this week, rates are barely up year-over-year, if not slightly below,” he said. “I think it was a capacity-driven end of September and into October, and once basically they realized that the CDL status was not being enforced, followed by the U.S. District court pause on non-domiciled CDL, it felt like Road Check lasted for a couple of weeks.”  

And he also noted that the market continues to deal with a weak demand environment, which Adamo said is simply hard to outrun, with the caveat that it is also hard to supply high demand, too, which leads to skyrocketing rates.

“It is hard to capacity to rise to meet the occasion on the short-term,” he said. “It is just a very weak demand story, and any sort of little bumps here and there we have been seeing are just supply-driven.”

Looking out at the balance of 2025, Adamo said it is likely going to be a bumpy road for the spot market.

“The seasonal bumps in rates, or any capacity-driven rate expansion, is going to cramp broker margins,” said Adamo. “I think we're probably going to see a ramp up in broker bankruptcies if things don't change. We're not seeing any evidence of a strong peak. And to the extent to which we don't see a strong peak, the next opportunity to really start putting money in the bank is next spring, and there's just a lot of companies out there whose financial position isn't going to allow them to wait until spring. We could be very much in a situation where we see more trucker bankruptcies, more broker bankruptcies, and then just sort of waiting around until spring volume picks up. I think sequentially, December is always better and November and December are typically strong months. But if it's anything like last year, it won't impress.”