Spot truckload market remains stagnant in April, for volumes and rates, notes DAT Truckload Volume Index

Following a mixed March, spot truckload volumes and rates were again mixed in April, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI), which was issued today by DAT Freight and Analytics.

The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.

DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of April, including:

• the van TVI, at 287, was down 0.3% compared to March and up 1% annually;
• the refrigerated TVI, at 222, was down 3.1% compared to March, and up 4% annually;
• the flatbed TVI, at 332, was up 2.5% compared to March and up 5% annually;
• national average spot rates were mixed, with van, at $1.96 per mile (down $0.03 from March), reefer, at $2.27 per mile (flat compared to March); and flatbed, at $2.57 (up $0.04 from February) 
• the van linehaul rate, at $1.57 per mile, fell $0.03 compared to March, the reefer rate, was flat, at $1.85, and the flatbed rate, at $2.11, was up $0.05 (DAT said that linehaul rates exclude an average fuel surcharge amount, at $0.39, $0.42, and $0.46, for vans, reefers, and flatbeds, respectively);
• contract truckload rates per mile were mixed, with van, at $2.40 per mile (flat compared to March and down $0.06 annually), reefer at $2.74 (up $0.02 from March and down $0.08 annually), and flatbed, at $3.08 (up $0.04 from March and down $0.05 annually); and
• the spread between contract and van rates headed up for the fourth consecutive month, coming in at $0.44, $0.47, and $0.51, for vans, reefers, and flatbeds, respectively (DAT said that when spot rates fall relative to contract pricing, it can signal a soft or oversupplied market where carriers have to accept lower rates to keep moving)

“The market feels frozen,” said Ken Adamo, Chief of Analytics at DAT Freight & Analytics. “April brought the usual seasonal opportunities in produce and construction materials. But broader economic factors—including uncertainty over tariffs and the pull-forward of inventory this year—put a damper on growth in overall freight volumes, especially compared to previous years. “Carriers were hoping April rates would be a springboard into a stronger Q2. Instead, the optimistic case is that they’ve reached a pricing floor heading into the traditional summer peak shipping season in May and June. How ‘traditional’ the season looks has yet to be determined.”

In an interview with LM, Adamo said that there was a little bit of what he called an expected backslide heading in April, with the caveat that it was not to a dire level, and adding that it is surprising to see how flat market conditions have been.

“The biggest surprise is just how truly stuck things are,” he said. “No one's really seen a period where things have just been absolutely dead, especially if you look at like the contract market, it's just absolutely stagnant and flat.”

When asked if there are any signs, or implications, that conditions will see an upward shift, Adamo observed that there was some optimism related to the recent news regarding lower tariffs between the U.S. and China, and he also said that seasonality by the end of last week began to exert itself in most of the markets, calling it very tempered, and without a big drop-off, which has provided a sigh of relief.

To that end, he noted that the reefer segment has had a difficult spring season, with things delayed, with Adamo saying it has a hole it needs to climb out of, with the sector being the most seasonally-sensitive this time of year.

And with the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s Road Check from May 13-15, he said this tends to be the time of year when things spike, citing how in 2022, during Road Check, reefer spot rates climbed $0.10 in a one-week period.

“We should see some upward movement, I think, especially with a lot of the fears around the English language proficiency requirement probably bringing more pressure around Road Check week,” he said.   

As April saw the spread between contract and van rates headed up for the fourth consecutive month, Adamo noted that it is truly remarkable in “how it does not look right,” in terms of what rates are doing, given that it has not occurred over this long of a period in the past.

“If contract rates stay flat through August, they will have been flat for two [consecutive] years,” he said. “Contract rates are literally to the penny where they were in August 2023. There is some seasonality in spot and maybe rates are up a tiny bit, but this is kind of remarkable.”

When asked how things could play out in May, for spot truckload volumes and rates, in terms of frozen or flat conditions, Adamo said that it is somewhat too early to tell. But he did say that with bonded warehouses and free trade zones being maxed out, it could actually hit a lot faster that initially thought, from a volume rush standpoint, as they empty out and potentially subsequently grow.

“I think all eyes this week are going to be on manifests being created for ocean shipping, and seeing how that kind of gives us a forward-looking view of what's going to hit in the next few weeks,” he said. “Looking at Southern California, for example, drivers have just not wanted to go to California the last two weeks because they know they're not going to get anything else. I think that could change and ease a little bit, but I think it's just a big unknown. I think the market is just going struggle to process this information.”