Cass Freight Index reports January freight shipments and expenditures declines

January started 2025 where 2024 left off, with declining annual freight shipments and expenditures readings— according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The January shipments reading, at 0.954, fell 8.2% annually and was off 5.3% compared to December (with roughly half of that decline attributed to normal seasonality, as well as likely worse weather than normal in the Southeast), following a 6.5% annual decline in December and a 7.3% decline, from November to December. January shipments fell 2.7% on a month-to-month seasonally-adjusted basis and were off 15.1% on a two-year stacked change basis.

“Private fleet capacity additions continue to pull freight from the for-hire market, and LTL consolidation is also putting pressure on this index,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report. “The normal seasonal pattern would have the index down about 10% y/y in February, but it should be smaller if milder weather continues. Some national fleets that experienced similar declines, like XPO, attributed about 3pps to weather. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and, so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025.” 

January expenditures, at 2.971, fell 4.2% annually and dropped 4.8% compared to December, following a 3.4% annual decline in December and a 2.6% decrease, from November to December. Expenditures decreased 2.6% on a month-to-month seasonally-adjusted basis and were off 27.5% on a two-year stacked change basis.

“The decline in spending was again from shipments, which fell 5.3% m/m,” explained Denoyer. “Comparing the changes in shipments and overall spending, we infer rates rose 0.5% m/m in January in the fourth straight price increase.”