Freight shipments and expenditures readings are mixed in March, reports Cass Freight Index

Freight shipments and expenditures readings were mixed in March, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The March shipments reading, at 1.054, fell 3.5% annually and was flat compared to February, following a 5.5% annual February decline and a 10.5% sequential increase from January to February (with half of that increase attributed to normal seasonality). March shipments were down 2.1% on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, from February to March, and down 8.7% on a two-year stacked change basis. This came after a 4.9% SAA gain in February after severe January weather, with some of the improvement in February also likely from pre-tariff shipping, the report observed.

“The recent 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs will likely lead to more pre-tariff shipping in Q2,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report.  “However, this will contend with adverse effects from the extreme tariffs on China at this writing, and other tariffs. Volumes may also be temporarily supported in the coming months as consumers scoop up pre-tariff goods before prices go up. But thereafter, the trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far, is trending toward another decline in 2025. In April, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 4% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.”  

March expenditures, at 3.163, increased 2.8% compared to February and were off 2.0% annually. They increased 1.5% on a month-to-month SA basis and were down 20.1% on a two-year stacked change basis.

Denoyer said that the annual decline was explained by lower volumes, as noted by the 3.5% annual decline in shipments, as well as inferred rates being up 3.5% annually in March.