Cass Freight Index sees annual declines in November

Freight shipments and expenditures were largely down in November, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $36 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The November shipments reading, at 1.004, fell 7.6% annually, in line with October’s 7.8% annual decline (below the 5.8% year-to-date reading and with an expected annual decline around 6%), and was up 0.7% compared to October. The reading was off 8.2% on a two-year stacked change basis and up 2.7% on a month-to-month seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis.

After truckload volumes briefly improved in Q3 ahead of the October 5 import tariff deadline, they have softened again so far in Q4 as pre-tariff stocks are drawn down,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “Resilient early holiday consumer spending data suggest some pent-up demand could be building, but tariffs are likely to continue to press prices higher and affordability lower in 2026. In December, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 4% y/y on the normal seasonal pattern.”

November expenditures, at 3.163, decreased 1.2% annually and were down 0.2% compared to October. On a two-year stacked change basis, expenditures were off 5.0% and on a month-to-month SA basis, they rose 2.1%.

“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024,” wrote Denoyer. “In 2025, the index is likely to decline by under 1%, and it could end up flat with a strong December.”

Vertical Research Partners analyst Jeff Kauffman wrote in a research note that the Cass data shows continued bouncing around an unusual bottom driven by early freight shipments this year. 

“The net takeaway is that the late start to the Holiday Shipping Season appears to have finally arrived, matching anecdotal observations we are hearing from our carriers,” he said.